How Real is James Shields

James Shields was one of the worst full time starting pitchers in MLB in 2010 (a 5.18 ERA was among the worst). In 2011, he was one of the best. So who is he? In 2010, he had a very pedestrian 1.28 PE, while in 2011 he had a great -2.11 PE. His WAR in 2011 was 6.1, while his terrible 2010 season registered a -1.3 WAR. In 2011, he had a great 12.28 TR. In 2010 his TR was 9, which frankly isn't terrible. Shields' groundball percentage was only slightly lower, and HR/FB was only slightly higher in 2010. His FIP in 2010 was 4.24, which would have been a not too bad ERA. In 2011, his FIP was actually higher than his ERA, so while his fielders made him look worse in 2010, they made him look better in 2011. The BABIP difference was also striking as well. In 2010 it was .341! In 2010 it was .258. He also gave up more infield hits in 2010. He actually struck out more and walked less in 2010. The only things that really go against the Shields was unlucky narrative in 2010 and due for a good year in 2011, was that he gave up more line drives and fly balls in 2010. Looking at his pitch selection, he threw less fastballs and more curveballs in 2011, and that can't be emphasized enough. Other than that, the metrics seem to argue that Shields is somewhere in between his terrible 2010 year and his amazing 2011 season. Expecting a WAR of around 4 next year would probably be a good expectation.

There have been many rumors that Shields will be traded. Should he be traded? Of course it matters what you are getting back. He is going to make about $7 million in 2012, and if he does put up a 4 WAR next year, that is a WASP of 1750, very very solid. However, one has to grapple with the money problems of the Rays. At about a $42 million payroll, Shields would be 1/6th of the team's salary. They would obviously need more than 4 wins over replacement for 1/6th of their salary to make the playoffs. Assuming they need 95 wins to make the playoffs, they would need over 7 WAR for every 1/6th of their payroll. So it seems to make sense for the Rays to trade him, but they better get a very good package.

Casey Kotchman and the problem of prediction

So Casey Kotchman is sort of a headscratcher. He had some success with the LA Angels (along with the greatest fielding percentage for a first basemen in history), but last year in Seattle was widely considered a disaster. So Andrew Friedman of the Rays signed him to a minor league contract and he has had a very nice year for Tampa Bay. His PPG this year is .712, in Seattle last year it was .776, actually better. His PAPP was 2.67 in '11, and 3.41 in 2010. His isolated slugging is worse this year than last year. Last year his OBP was .280, this year it was .378 with Tampa bay. Career OBP is .336. In 07 it was .372. He had a .800 OPS this year, he has had 2 years with above .800 OPS. This year was his best Offensive WAR, but 07 was his best WAR. Statistics tell us that there are a such thing as outliers, and sometimes they just need to be tossed out. With that said, many metrics show that this is by far Kotchman's best year, his offensive winning percentage (what a team that rolled out 9 Casey Kotchman's for a lineup with average defense and pitching) is .609, his best in his career (last years' was just .291). His power was slightly better last year, but he is a much better hitter this year. Their is a clear difference in batting average on balls in play (.335 this year, a career high, and .229 last year). The groundball/flyball ratio is the same though, is putting the same amount of balls in play, and actually hitting more line drives. Throughout his whole career, he has put about 75% of balls in play, and nothing has really changed in that category. So he struck out a little more and walked a little less in 2010, but he had slightly better pop, other than that, there aren't many real difference between the 2 seasons. He may have been slightly unlucky last year, plus there was the issue with his eye in Seattle that he resolved in Tampa. In this case, it seems to be really hard to predict whether or nor Kotchman would have the season he has had in Tampa, other than track record where he had some success in LA, and only being 28 (so its hard to say he was washed up in Seattle). It also should be reemphasized that he was hitting the ball pretty hard in Seattle, he had just lost the OBP and efficiency (this year was a 3.1 O-WAR year, while last year he was -1.3 O-WAR). Maybe Maddon is just more of a genius then we give him credit for.

Why I like the Rays: Part 1,000,000

If you read the blog regularly, you know that I like and respect the Rays organization because of what they are able to do with so little money. Here is another move that has made a lot of sense: during the off-season, the Rays traded starter Matt Garza and 2 minor leaguers (that haven't played for the Cubs yet) for Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer and 2 minor leaguers (that haven't played for the Rays yet). Of course, who "won" this trade will ultimately be decided by how the minor leaguers for both teams turn out. However, we can grade how this trade affected the teams this year. Despite losing Garza, the Rays still have the second best pitching in the American League at 3.59 and have the most complete games at 15 (mainly because of James Shields). The Cubs however, are last in the NL in fielding. For the Rays, Sam Fuld has given them a 1.6 WAR, and 1 WAR on defense (not to mention all those cool highlight catches). Brandon Guyer has given the Rays a .3 WAR (all on defensive WAR). So this year the Rays have gotten 1.9 WAR from those two outfielders and haven't missed Garza in the rotation. Matt Garza (with a complete game no earned run performance on Wednesday) has given the Cubs a 2.2 WAR. It is tempting to say, just by looking at the WARs, that the Cubs won the trade. However (not even mentioning that the Cubs desperately could use the outfield play of Fuld and Guyer), this is ignoring the salary situation and the real genius of Friedman and Maddon (and the reckless decision making by the Cubs that got their GM fired), Matt Garza is a free agent at the end of the year, and is making 5.95 million dollars this year (he is giving them a solid WASP at 2704, but he is definitely a candidate to be overpaid next year, and the Cubs are awful about doing that). Fuld, on the other hand, is making 421,000 this year (a great 263 WASP) and isn't even arbitration eligible at the end of the year (and won't be a free agent until 2016!). Guyer made his debut this year, so his official salary hasn't been released, but it is probably at the minimum of 400,000, and he won't even be arbitration eligible for a couple of years. This is why I like the Rays (as I write this, the Yankees are tied with the Rays 2-2 with Jeremy Helickson, making $416,000 this year, facing off against CC Sabathia, making 23 million dollars this year).

That disastrous Scott Kazmir trade is still funny

When teams are in pennant races, like both the Angels and Rays currently are, its important to look at previous roster moves to see how they got to this point. In the heat of a pennant in the 09 season, the Angels bizarrely traded for Rays starter Scott Kazmir, who had a 5.92 ERA and -.7 WAR. They gave up 3 minor league players, Sean Rodriquez, Matt Sweeney, and Alexander Torres. Scott Kazmir is no longer affiliated with any organization. In his Angels career, he posted a .3 WAR (he actually posted a 1.6 WAR in the 09 season) and an ERA well over 5. He has taken in about 18 million dollars from the club (!), giving him a horrific WASP (Wins after Replacement and Salary Per) of 60,000. Sean Rodriquez (who was originally the "player to be named" in the trade), has already given Tampa a 3.1 WAR and has made less than a million dollars over his time as a Ray, giving him a very good (remember, you want low numbers) WASP of 268.7. The other two players haven't even made it to the majors yet and it's already a great trade for Tampa. Torres has posted a 9-7 record with a 3.08 ERA, and 1.483 WHIP this year in AAA, and he strikes out nearly 10 batters every 9 innings. Sweeney has really struggled at hitting in AAA and seems much farther off. There are rumors that Tampa GM Andrew Friedman could become the Cubs GM, imagine what he could do with a club that has money.