Reviewing the Iannetta-Chatwood trade

 The Colorado Rockies have shipped Chris Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood.

Iannetta had a 2.6 WAR in 2011, and a 1.27 WAR average over the past 3 years. Iannetta is scheduled to make 3.55 million in 2012. Iannetta has a -.5 D-WAR for his career, along with a below average range factor. He does have an above average fielding percentage, but he doesn't seem to be the defensive catcher that the Angels usually go after. Offensively, he is above average, with a .357 OBP, 99 OPS +, and 1.858 O4S. His 5.5 Runs Created per Game, and .568 offensive winning percentage is probably ignored because of his .235 Batting Average. He has a .365 Secondary Average and .195 ISO, along with a 3.6% home run rate. He walks at a great percentage (13.9%) and is very much a flyball hitter. He also has an excellent PPS of 101.61. He has received quite a bit of benefit from the hitter friendly Rockies ballpark, as Baseball Reference says his OBP would drop to .343 (1.785 O4S) in a neutralized run environment. These are still decent numbers, especially for a catcher.

Chatwood had a -.6 WAR in 25 starts in 2011, his first year in the Majors. He also just has 5 career AAA starts, so it is hard to pull anything from that. So we will have to go by his meager sample size in the Major Leagues. His PE was awful at 4.72, with an adjusted PE of 4.86. His FIP - was 122, and he walked nearly as many batters as he struck out. He did suffer from a high BABIP of .325, but that can't explain away his horrible TR of 6.71. So obviously Chatwood was horrible in 2011, so the Rockies have to believe he projects to be better. Speaking of projections, the Bill James projections has him turning out a 4.73 PE. So no real movement there, but he did give up less than a homer every 9 innings, and gets slightly more groundballs than flyballs. That has to be what the Rockies see in him (as well as the fact that he is under club control for a few more years).

Chatwood appears to be a below replacement pitcher that should be in AAA in 2012. On the other hand, Iannetta is one of the few catchers that can mash and get on base. The Rockies do cut some payroll, but only like 3 million and it was a very underpaid and undervalued offensive tool they let go. Unless Chatwood turns into an all-star type pitcher, the Rockies look very dumb here.

Should the Orioles sign Renyel Pinto?

The Orioles, reports show, are interested in reliever Renyel Pinto. Pinto didn't pitch anywhere in 2011. In his major league career, he had a 2.1 WAR in 5 seasons, .42 WAR a season, which is worth $1.26 million a year. However, this is with a FIP over a run higher than his ERA as shown by his -.87 PE but an Adjusted PE of .24. His career FIP - is 109, and while he gets slightly more groundballs than flyballs, he has a career SIERA 4.46. He has really struggled with walks, walking nearly 6 hitters per 9 innings. His TR is actually about average at 8.41. I know the Orioles have had real pitching problems, but getting a pitcher who was average in the first place, and didn't pitch at all last year doesn't make a lot of sense.

How much value does Maicer Izturis have?

Their are rumors that the Tigers are going to try to trade for the Angels infielder Maicer Izturis. In 2011, he had a 3.3 WAR, giving him a very good WASP of 990. Over the past 3 years, Izturis has a WAR average of 2.6, worth 7.8 million (he will make just 3.8 million in 2012). He is coming off his best year defensively at a 1.4 D-WAR. As far as I can see, D-WAR is not predictive. For example Carlos Lee went from a -2 D-WAR in 2010 to a NL leading 2.1 D-WAR in 2011 (this could be partly explained by Lee playing more first base in 2011, but that can't explain all of it).That is not to say that D-WAR is useless, I think the basic formula for runs saved is solid. It is just not predictive. He has a 2.9 WAR in his 9 year career, which is .3625 D-WAR average per year. That defense alone is worth over a million dollars. So what is his offense like? His OBP is not real impressive at .339, and his OPS + is just 95 (with an O4S of 1.745). His Secondary Average and Isolated Slugging are perhaps more disappointing at .226 and .114, but he has an offensive winning percentage just short of .500 and 4.8 Runs Created Per Game (the American League scored 4.46 runs per game in 2011, so according to that metric he is above average). He is by no means a home run hitter, and he walks about average, but he does have a decent PPS of 92.07. All around he seems to be a very average offensive player. However, once you add his good defensive play, and reasonable salary, he becomes pretty valuable. However, knowing the Angels (at least professed) emphasis on defense, it would probably take a lot to pry away Izturis from them.

The Diamondbacks (maybe) sign Jensen Lewis

The Diamondbacks (it was originally reported that the Rangers made the signing) have signed reliever Jensen Lewis to a $675,000 deal. His last year in the big leagues, 2010, he actually had a .6 WAR which would be a nice WASP of 1125. He actually has a 2.1 WAR in 4 seasons, worth 1.575 million dollars a year. However, he spent all of 2011 in AAA, and didn't pitch all that well with a 3.43 PE and 3.49 adjusted PE. However, it was a small sample size (28.1 innings) and he had a BABIP of nearly .400. It is more helpful to look at his 5 seasons in the International AAA League, where he had a -2.36 PE in 110 innings. According to our AAA metric, this projects to be a .17 PE. For a reliever, that is not very impressive, but its not exactly horrible. In his Major League career (198 innings), he has a -.6 PE and an adjusted PE of -.02. His TR is about 8.77, further cementing his role as an average relief pitcher. He gives up a little bit too much homers at 1.05 HR/9IP, and is more of a flyball pitcher than groundball pitcher. However, he has a nice strikeout ratio, and doesn't walk very many batters. He was somewhat lucky and benefited from good defensive play in Cleveland, but he isn't a bad pitcher and with the crazy money relief pitchers are getting, this was a pretty solid pickup by the Diamondbacks or the Rangers or whoever actually picked him up.

The Royals sign Jonathan Broxton

The Royals have signed relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton to a one year 4.4 million dollar deal. Due to injury, he pitched just 12.2 innings in 2011, so we will throw those numbers out. However, in 2010, his WAR was just .1 in 62.1 innings. From 2008-2010, his WAR was .9, worth 2.7 million. This appears to be an awful deal for the Royals. Especially once you factor in the fact that the Royals had the smallest payroll in 2011 at around 35 million. So Broxton, who (if healthy!) will throw around 60 innings (about 4 percent of the around 1458 innings that the Royals will play), will make about 12.3% of the Royals payroll. The closer market is really ridiculous right now. So obviously this is a horrible move by the Royals, but lets look at Broxton's statistics anyway. Broxton has a career -4.95 PE and -5.43 Adjusted PE, both very very good. His TR is also excellent at 11.87 and the Bill James projections have him putting up a -4.43 PE in 2012. If he is healthy, which is quite a question, he is a very good reliever. However, it simply doesn't make any sense to sign him for this amount of money, especially if you are a small market team.

How we did: Week 12 NFL Picks

Big D in Bold. I in Italics

Cowboys survive Dolphins
Packers figuratively stomp on Lions
Ravens sack 49ers
Falcons beat Vikings
Texans fire Jaguars
Patriots embarrass Eagles
Steelers knock off Chiefs
Saints run all over Giants

Big D: 8-0, 43-21
I: 7-1, 40-24

Nationals sign Carlos Maldonado

The Nationals have resigned Carlos Maldonado, a catcher who played almost exclusively in AAA in 2011. He has played 336 AAA games, almost all of them in the International League. His offensive statistics look like this: .324 OBP, 3.05 PAPP, .76 PPG, and -.46 Simple WAR. So he is a below replacement AAA player offensively. However, he is above average at catcher according to Range Factor (a 7.95 Range Factor, league average for catchers is usually around 7.4 or 7.5). However, you would think that no matter how great defensively he is, it couldn't make up for those terrible offensive numbers. Just how terrible are his offensive numbers, according to our AAA metric, they would look like this in the Majors: .278 OBP, 3.62 PAPP, .36 PPG, and -1.95 O-WAR. So just to become a replacement player, Maldonado would need about a 2 D-WAR. In the National League, 2.1 D-WAR would have been a share for the leader in D-WAR. Now even if we assume his above average catching, it is impossible for us to project him to be the best defensive catcher in the league. This means that he will be a below replacement player. For the Nationals sake, I hope they have other serious plans at catcher.