Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Reds sign Wirfin Obisbo (Updated)

The Reds signed pitcher Wirfin Obisbo to a minor league contract. Obisbo has spent the past 4 years in Japan pitching as both a reliever and a starter. He had a pretty pedestrian PE in that time of 2.09. This obviously means he doesn't project to be a Major League pitcher. He really struggled with homers, giving up 1.4 HR/9IP per inning. According to NPB Tracker's velocity charts, Obisbo throws 92.5 MPH at the most and about 91 on average. So, he has average to slightly above average velocity. In 2006 he was actually in the Reds organization, pitching for the Reds' Dominican Summer League team. There he pitched pretty well striking out 10.6 batters per 9 innings and earning a 2.04 ERA. One of his teammates was Enerio Del Rosario, a pitcher who has pitched slightly below replacement level in the Majors. Obispo had a slightly higher ERA but a much better strikeout rate. Obispo was slightly older than his teammates at age 21, when his average teammate was 20.3 (Del Rosario was 20 as well). Pedro Viola, who has also pitched below replacement in the Majors, was part of the team as well, and had the exact same ERA and a slightly better strikeout rate. Viola was a few years older though. It should be noted, like the Dominican Winter Leagues, the league was a very pitcher friendly environment. The best hitter on the team had an OPS of just .700 (the Reds' team seems to have been pretty bad though, as the Cubs' best guy had an OPS of .796, and a few players in the league had an OPS of better than .800). So it would seem that one would have to be even harsher when applying the usually A metric of 2 runs added to the ERA from A-ball to MLB. This is not real good news for Obispo, as we would be talking about an ERA well over 4 in the Majors (which would make a lot of sense when factoring in his mediocrity in the NPB, with a projected ERA of 4.74). At age 27, this should be Obispo's prime season, and we would expect him to be an above replacement pitcher, but not an average one. Obispo is the kind of player these minor league free agent contracts are designed for, they may be helpful for a short time, but its not anyone you want to actually depend on.

UPDATE:

 Obispo signed a minor league contract with the Braves for the 2013 season. He did not pitch in the Majors for the Reds in 2012, instead splitting it between AA and AAA. In 10 games (3 starts) with AAA, he struggled, with a 4.08 FIP and 5.53 SIERA, walking more guys than he struck out with a bad (36.2 %) GB rate. In AA, his basic numbers were helped by a .194 BABIP, but he was still decent with a 3.41 SIERA (.81 points better than league average) and 3.96 FIP (.12 points worse than league average). He pitched in a hitter friendly park compared to league average (the Southern League is a pitcher's league), but struck out over 25 % of batters and less than 10%. His ground-ball rate was still terrible (2nd worse on the team out of pitchers with at least 5 innings), but the line drive rate (if you trust it) was also low. Here is some video of him I took from him pitching in the Dominican Winter League:




Monday, February 6, 2012

Scouting Reports on Tarleton and McMurry

On Saturday (February 4 2012) we saw the University of Tarleton play McMurry. The wind was blowing rather strong, but not overpowering. The umpire had a wide and pretty inconsistent zone affecting the outcome of at least 2-3 at-bats. Tarleton won the game 2-1 on a walk-off hit.

The most impressive player by far was relief pitcher Britt Robertshaw. He is a 6 foot 3 inches pitcher who previously pitched at Northwestern (of Louisiana) and Blinn College. He throws in the low nineties, reportedly getting all the way up to 96 MPH. He was by far the hardest thrower in the game, and he kept the ball low in warmups but put it all over the place during the game. He reportedly has 4 different pitches, but he only threw fastballs in the game (he really didn't need any other pitchers in the game). He struck out two (with a wild pitch) and got a weak groundball in 1 inning of play, stranding both inherited runners. At Blinn as a freshman, he really struggled with a 7.60 ERA, 6.75 K/9IP, and just one more strikeout than walks. At Northwestern, he was no better, with a WHIP of 2.76 and over twice as many walks as strikeouts in 12 games (11 of them relief appearances). He has had some injury problems, but passed the eyeball test with a good enough fastball, and if he can develop a breaking ball pitch, he may be a prospect.

Matt Buckmaster was the starting pitcher for Tarleton. I was without a radar gun, but he didn't throw very hard, and he had an okay pickoff move. He gave up 7 groundballs (with a GIDP), 2 flyballs, and 7 line drives. He struck out just 4 and walked 2, giving up 1 run.


The starting pitcher for McMurray was Spencer Smith, a 6 foot Junior from Amarillo. He was kind of big (Sidney Ponson-ish), but didn't throw that hard. He had an awful pickoff move, but he did keep the ball low. His breaking pitch was interesting, as it had good speed differential and solid movement, but he couldn't get hardly an swing and misses. He got 9 groundballs versus just 3 flyballs (including one to the warning track, about 360 feet), and one linedrive. They made a lot of contact off of him (just 2 strikeouts), but they didn't hit the ball very hard (excluding the near miss home run). He did hit two batters and walked 4, so control wasn't always there. In 2010, Smith really struggled with an ERA over 10 and a BAA of over .350. It seems he, at least what we saw, has improved since them. However, since he is a contact style pitcher, his control problems are very concerning. Pitchers who can't miss bats at this low of a level seldom stand a chance.

Other pitchers who pitched in the game included Jacob Detoni, a 6-2 Freshman who gave up 5 groundballs, 2 flyballs (one deep and one in the infield), and 1 linedrive. He was sort of deceptive with a soft breaking ball, it at least seemed like he was throwing harder overall. You would thought he would have struckout more, but he only struck out two, one on a very questionable call. He also had major control issues, with 2 wild pitches, a HBP, and a walk. Kenneth Stockton had really questionable control (wild pitch), not much of a pickoff move, and gave up 2 line drives, a hard grounder, and an infield popup (also struck out a batter).

Tarleton had a definite "small-ball" approach, and cost themselves 2 outs in the first inning. Evan Robinson was the starting shortstop (who had the walk off hit in the game), and had a failed sac bunt attempt, a 3 pitch slap groundout, a soft flyball double, a flyball single, and a five pitch groundball. He is just a freshman out of high school, but he is small, listed at 5-7, 155 LBS. Andrew Wolfe was a senior outfielder who hit at the bottom of the order. He tried, unsuccessfully, to bunt for a hit, grounded out, sac bunted (on the second strike), with a 5 pitch walk. He had decent speed, and is a little bigger, but not very large with virtually no power. Jared Musgrove is listed as a catcher but DHed and was pinch run for (by junior Ty Crump, who we didn't really get to see run, but had a .200 BA and .385 OBP in 10 ABs for Grayson County College in 2011). He had a 5 pitch at bat where he hit a hard grounder, was hit by a pitch, and fell for a breaking ball out of the zone during a 4 pitch at bat that ended in a ground out. He is a sophomore who is about standard size for Tarleton, at 5-10 175 LBS. Christopher Patton is a sophomore outfielder who had a 5 pitch foul ball out, a 2 pitch medium flyball out, a 3 pitch grounder, and a 4 pitch short swing liner (3.5 P/PA). Noah Ringenberger is a junior outfielder who also pitches (he didn't pitch in the game we saw, but had a 5.65 ERA in 14.1 innings at Northeastern State last year). He had a 4 pitch walk, a 1 pitch groundball double, a 6 pitch infield pop, and a 2 pitch groundball single (just 3.25 Pit/PA). He should have had a stolen base, but a HBP canceled it, and then he was later thrown out trying to steal third.
Ryan Small was the catcher, and he had a strong, but inaccurate arm. He did make a great stop behind the plate and seemed to know what he was doing back there. He was HBP, had a groundball chop, a one pitch groundout, and a 2 pitch line drive. He played Junior College at Midland, and is currently a junior. Austin Coble is a relatively small junior who can also pitch. He had a 4 pitch weak groundout, a 6 pitch strikeout looking (at a pitch that looked off the plate), a 7 pitch strikeout (where he chased a pitch out of the zone), and a 1 pitch ground out. Landon Thompson is a very similar player who can pitch as well, but is a freshman instead of a junior. He had a 1 pitch ground-out, a 1 pitch flyball, a 6 pitch strikeout looking, and a 6 pitch walk. Even though he chased one pitch out of the zone, he seemed to be a passive Sam Fuld type hitter. Thompson also leaves one wanting when it comes to speed, as he is rather slow.

Garrett Hardey was by far the most impressive hitter out of either side, and I would rank him the second best player on either team (behind Robertshaw). He is a 6-5 senior firstbasemen who is listed at 215 LBS, but looked very scrawny. At first he had a nice arm, and made a good pick. At the plate, he had a 4 pitch groundout, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 5 pitch walk, and a warning track shot that went about 360 feet. He seems to have power, but one would hope he will fill out more (even though he is a senior, which makes it more unlikely). He did struggle some with breaking pitches, so if pitch recognition is actually a problem, then it hurts any kind of value he has immensely. At West Texas JC, he batted .346, with a SLG of .586, with 21 walks versus 29 K's. He appeared in just 19 games last year with Tarleton and struggled.

McMurry was a horrible fielding team, the epitome of which was the 2nd baseman Marcellus Biggins, who had defensive struggles the entire game and eventually made an error. He had big size (he reminded us of Delmon Young with his body build, and furthered the comparison with his bad defense and a chasing of a high pitch). He had a 7 pitch ground-out, a 2 pitch ground-out, a 5 pitch line drive, and a 5 pitch strikeout where he chased a pitch way out of the zone (a 4.75 Pitch/PA in the game though). The third baseman, who we believe was Jacob Bermejo, fell down on a key play. With the bat Bermejo had 2 line drive outs and a 5 pitch infield hit. 1st Baseman Matt Thompson (who went to high school at Southlake Carroll), had an error as well. He had a 6 pitch medium depth flyball, just missed a double down the line (but it went foul), and a 3 pitch GIDP. The LF for McMurry also made a throwing error. There were positives on defense though, as SS Kory Moench showed off a good arm, and had a 5 pitch walk. He also hit a hard grounder, another 1 pitch ground-out, and a line drive out. Brad Baker was the catcher for McMurry, and he showed off a good arm and made a great diving grab on a foul ball. He did seem to have a major whole in his swing though, but had a 7 pitch at bat, a 5 pitch infield popup, and a 3 pitch medium flyball. The strangest thing about him was his size, as he is just 5-4 160 LBS.
Here is Baker (I would have taken more photos but my hands were way too cold to operate my phone):


Ruben Zendejas is a junior outfielder from Mission college. He too is very small, just 5' 5" 145 LBS. He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 6 pitch walk, and a sac bunt. He had decent speed, although neither team had really good speed for "small ball" type teams. Dylan DeLeon was a Junior outfielder who was a little bit bigger (5'10" 165 LBS). He had a 1 pitch groundball hit, a 3 pitch strikeout, and another 1 pitch at-bat. Jordan Brown was the last outfielder, and the senior was both bigger and more patient. He had a 7 pitch line drive, a 5 pitch strikeout, a 4 pitch line drive, and a 2 pitch hard grounder. Andrew Bell is a 6'2" junior who is also listed as an outfielder but DHed in the game. He has no speed and was caught stealing, and had a major hole in his swing. He had a 6 pitch line drive single, a 4 pitch strikeout, a 2 pitch groundball (for a hit), and an infield hit after 5 pitches.

Thanks to David Withers (Big D of football picking fame) for helping with this post.

Sunday, February 5, 2012

2012 Super Bowl Prediction

Big D in Bold, I in Italics
(note: in the past 2 years, I have picked the Super Bowl correctly, while Big D has been incorrect).

Giants versus Patriots

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Nationals sign Edwin Jackson

The Washington Nationals have signed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to a 1 year 10 million dollar deal. According to Fangraphs, Jackson has averaged a WAR of 3.73 over the last 3 years. Jackson is usually known for being pretty inconsistent, but that seems to be a misnomer when looking at key pitching stats, as his last 3 WARs have been 3.6, 3.8, 3.8, with FIP - of 96, 91, 89, with a little more variance of Adjusted PEs of 1.14, .09, and 1.22. With Jackson, he has pitched in so many different places that we should know what kind of pitcher he is without even using ballpark adjusted metrics. He has done an okay job keeping the ball in the ballpark in his career with a .99 HR/9IP rate. He has really improved his groundball rate over the last two years, with 1.55 and 1.4 GB/FB ratios in 2010 and 2011 respectively. He throws just a touch under 95 on his fastball on average, and has had very nice walk rates over the last 3 years. His SIERAs have been funky over the last 3 years, disagreeing with his FIPs big time. This is just a 1 year deal, so its not a long term risk. 10 million dollars actually seems slightly low according to Fangraphs WAR, and this seems to be a pretty poor deal for Jackson. This is not only a great deal for the Nationals, but it makes me wonder why 29 other teams weren't making this offer.

Friday, February 3, 2012

Is Vladimir Guerrero worth 5 Million in 2012?

I was intrigued by a report that Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon are both holding out expecting a 5 million dollar deal. I clearly believe Johnny Damon is worth that, as he had a bad BABIP year in 2011 and was still worth his 5.5 million dollar salary. However, as I hadn't written an article yet on Vlad, I thought it would be interesting to see whether he is actually worth 5 million dollars to a team. He had just a .1 WAR with the Orioles in 2011, obviously not worth 5 million dollars, while over the 3 last years he has averaged a .8 WAR. Again, this is worth less than 3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the last 3 years, he has averaged .54 Runs Created per game, or 75.8 Runs Created per 140 games or about 10 runs more than an average player. In 2011, he was about average at creating runs. Over the last 3 years, he has a 109 OPS +, with an OPS + of 101. However, he is terrible at defense, and the Orioles didn't even let him play defense in 2011. So while he seems to be a slightly above average hitter, you have to count that with his defense he is either a below average player or strictly a DH, which limits his signing places. This makes it borderline absurd to suggest that Guerrero is worth 5 million dollars, but in the end, it only takes one team paying it. Lets do a final projection. Using ZIPS, Vlad is projected to create 74.29 Runs in 137 games, so combining ZIPS, 2011, and 2009-2011, we get Guerrero with 71.8 Runs or about 6 runs more than an average player in 140 games with an OPS + of slightly over 100. So Vlad does seem to be poised to have a slightly above average offensive season in 2012. So if he is willing to settle for under 3 million, he is definitely worth taking a look at.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Projecting High School Statistics

We have already done several articles on college projections here, however, we discovered recently that drafting high schoolers brings a better return (or at least a higher ceiling). Because of this, we have to figure out how to project high school players.

I had to be a little creative with finding high school stats, because many times they are hard to find, especially for past seasons. I used batting average for high school because that was a whole lot easier to find. While batting average is a rather flawed statistic (see my article on Kala Ka'aihue), I have shown previously that it has about the same correlation to scoring runs as OBP (right click on the
image and zoom in to see it).


There seems to be a decent correlation between the ranking of high school batting average and A-ball OBP. The big exception is Matt Weiters who both in college and A-ball had a better OBP than high school BA. This could be two different reasons for this: A) he was a late bloomer type, while good in high school, he wasn't dominant like he was in college or A-ball or B) walks, walks, walks. He could have had a giant OBP in high school.
The biggest "bust" (great BA in high school and extremely low A-ball OBP) in the group is Jon Edwards. But that is just 1 out of 13, which is still a pretty good success rate, all 13 having .400+ BA in high school and being above average in A-ball. Rather than coming up with a metric, it may be more helpful to just note that any player in Major High School baseball with a .400+ BA is probable to have success in A-ball, and give out extra points for power, patience and defense. All 6 players with .500+ BA that have played A-ball have above average OBPs.We saw a similar correlation between high school and college, as all 7 .500+ BA guys were .360+ OBP guys in college. Once, you got into the .400s it got more tricky and was all out of order. I count 5 different players that had higher College OBPs than high school batting averages, while several others saw sharp decline. So strangely, there seems to be a better correlation between high school to A-ball than to college.

In our small sample size, there isn't really any correlation between high school ERA and College ERA. Even the guys that had ERAs under 1 in high school all had varied amount of success at every level. It didn't guarantee success. This is probably because ERA is a much more volatile stat than something like strikeouts. I would guess that a similar list showing K/9IP rather than ERA would provide a better correlation. Strikeout rates are a little harder to find for high school players, but they would be much better than ERA. Along with strikeouts, I would also look at velocity, which is one of the first things scouts look at anyway.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Free Agent Watch: Jeff Frazier

In 2011, Jeff Frazier had the worst BABIP in the AAA International League, with a .237. This brought his batting average down to a .226, and OBP to .295. He walked about average at 8 percent of the time, with a mediocre ISO of .137. This bad BABIP isn't normal for Frazier, as his he had BABIPs of .333, .325, and .264 in 3 previous stints in AAA. His Neutralized stats (that is with BABIP set at .300) is .286 BA and .366 OBP. This projects to a .320 OBP in the Majors and (using his AAA SLG, projected for the Majors) .395 SLG, or 75.84 Runs Created in 140 games. This is about 10 runs more than an average player (or 2 runs more than average if you use .323 OBP and .377 SLG).
Has played just 9 games in the Majors and is 29 years old, so obviously demand isn't very high for him. He has spent most of his career as an outfielder, but has been playing a lot of 1st over the last year. He really isn't that good at either position, and one would expect him to cost you a few runs defensively, and probably offset a lot of the offensive benefit. According to Baseball Reference, Frazier is a free agent. If I were a team, I would definitely give him a non-roster invite to Spring Training and a minor league deal.