Friday, February 3, 2012
Is Vladimir Guerrero worth 5 Million in 2012?
I was intrigued by a report that Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon are both holding out expecting a 5 million dollar deal. I clearly believe Johnny Damon is worth that, as he had a bad BABIP year in 2011 and was still worth his 5.5 million dollar salary. However, as I hadn't written an article yet on Vlad, I thought it would be interesting to see whether he is actually worth 5 million dollars to a team. He had just a .1 WAR with the Orioles in 2011, obviously not worth 5 million dollars, while over the 3 last years he has averaged a .8 WAR. Again, this is worth less than 3 million dollars according to the Halladay Standard. Over the last 3 years, he has averaged .54 Runs Created per game, or 75.8 Runs Created per 140 games or about 10 runs more than an average player. In 2011, he was about average at creating runs. Over the last 3 years, he has a 109 OPS +, with an OPS + of 101. However, he is terrible at defense, and the Orioles didn't even let him play defense in 2011. So while he seems to be a slightly above average hitter, you have to count that with his defense he is either a below average player or strictly a DH, which limits his signing places. This makes it borderline absurd to suggest that Guerrero is worth 5 million dollars, but in the end, it only takes one team paying it. Lets do a final projection. Using ZIPS, Vlad is projected to create 74.29 Runs in 137 games, so combining ZIPS, 2011, and 2009-2011, we get Guerrero with 71.8 Runs or about 6 runs more than an average player in 140 games with an OPS + of slightly over 100. So Vlad does seem to be poised to have a slightly above average offensive season in 2012. So if he is willing to settle for under 3 million, he is definitely worth taking a look at.