Casey Kotchman and the problem of prediction

So Casey Kotchman is sort of a headscratcher. He had some success with the LA Angels (along with the greatest fielding percentage for a first basemen in history), but last year in Seattle was widely considered a disaster. So Andrew Friedman of the Rays signed him to a minor league contract and he has had a very nice year for Tampa Bay. His PPG this year is .712, in Seattle last year it was .776, actually better. His PAPP was 2.67 in '11, and 3.41 in 2010. His isolated slugging is worse this year than last year. Last year his OBP was .280, this year it was .378 with Tampa bay. Career OBP is .336. In 07 it was .372. He had a .800 OPS this year, he has had 2 years with above .800 OPS. This year was his best Offensive WAR, but 07 was his best WAR. Statistics tell us that there are a such thing as outliers, and sometimes they just need to be tossed out. With that said, many metrics show that this is by far Kotchman's best year, his offensive winning percentage (what a team that rolled out 9 Casey Kotchman's for a lineup with average defense and pitching) is .609, his best in his career (last years' was just .291). His power was slightly better last year, but he is a much better hitter this year. Their is a clear difference in batting average on balls in play (.335 this year, a career high, and .229 last year). The groundball/flyball ratio is the same though, is putting the same amount of balls in play, and actually hitting more line drives. Throughout his whole career, he has put about 75% of balls in play, and nothing has really changed in that category. So he struck out a little more and walked a little less in 2010, but he had slightly better pop, other than that, there aren't many real difference between the 2 seasons. He may have been slightly unlucky last year, plus there was the issue with his eye in Seattle that he resolved in Tampa. In this case, it seems to be really hard to predict whether or nor Kotchman would have the season he has had in Tampa, other than track record where he had some success in LA, and only being 28 (so its hard to say he was washed up in Seattle). It also should be reemphasized that he was hitting the ball pretty hard in Seattle, he had just lost the OBP and efficiency (this year was a 3.1 O-WAR year, while last year he was -1.3 O-WAR). Maybe Maddon is just more of a genius then we give him credit for.

An Uggla collapse

During last off-season, the Braves traded pitcher Michael Dunn and infielder Omar Infante for slugging 2nd basemen Dan Uggla. An Uggla delivered, for his old team and division rival Marlins. His batting problems were well documented, his OBP was .058 less than his previous career low. However, it was his defense that was the bigger problem in '11. He led NL 2nd basemen in errors, and posted a horrible -1.5 WAR on D. He actually had more homers in '11 than in '10, but had less RBIs (probably because less runners in front of him on base, which is why RBIs is a very imperfect stat). His other offensive metrics weren't very impressive, 1.29 PPG, and 2.85 PAPP. Those are okay numbers, until you consider his salary. Through 2015, Uggla will average making 12.4 million a year. He posted just a 1.6 WAR in his first year as a Brave (again, mainly because of his horrible defense), giving him a WASP of 7750 with that salary number (with the Marlins, Uggla posted an amazing 928 WASP, he averaged a 3.08 WAR with Florida, meriting a 9.24 million dollar salary). With that big salary number, even the good 2010 would have barely put him under the Halladay Standard at a 2952 WASP. He actually made 9 million in 2011, giving him a still not good WASP of 5825 for the middle of the road salary Braves. He will need a career high 4.3 WAR next year just to meet the Halladay Standard and be "worth it", and he has clearly regressed defensively, so that will be even harder to do. Omar Infante posted a career high 3.4 WAR in Florida, while making 2.5 million (an amazing 735 WASP). He is a free agent this offseason however. Michael Dunn posted a .7 WAR and a great WASP of 591 and won't be a free agent until 2016. Considering that the Braves missed the playoffs by one game, and lost 2.5 wins over replacement (!) in this trade, its not hyperbole or sports talk radio to say that this trade cost them the playoffs. Of course, its again the Marlins ( went nearly .500 this season despite having 24th largest payroll) doing a great job of unloading homegrown players when they get more expensive, and getting good players in return.

Moneyball Review: The 3 Unsung Heroes

A big reason the Moneyball A's of 2002 (and even the 2001 A's) were successful was because of their pitching. The movie focuses mainly on the bullpen when it comes to pitching, but the Athletics had an extremely talented starting staff, headlined by 3 young pitchers: Zito, Mulder, and Hudson. 2001 and 2002 were the first full seasons for Barry Zito (the first round pick in the 1999 draft), and he threw well over 200 innings both years. In 2001 he posted a 4.3 WAR and -1.578 PE. In 2002, he had a -1.036 PE and a 6.5 WAR. Because minimum salary was less than it is now, he posted a mind-blowing 49 WASP (you could even double his salary to adjust for salary changes and its still 99, which would make him one of the top in the league). Mark Mulder was the first round pick for the A's in 1998, and 2001 and 2002 were also his first two full years in the Majors. He was really impressive too, posting a 9.5 WAR, 109 WASP, and 1.129 PE over that time. Tim Hudson was the 6th round pick of the A's in 1997, and had already started 53 games by the time 2001 rolled around. In 2001 and 2002, Hudson was spectacular, posting an 11 WAR, 127 WASP, and -0.494 PE. The story of Moneyball is great, and Billy Beane changed the way many teams operate and forever revolutionized the way we evaluate baseball, but we aren't even talking about Pena over Hatteberg, Chad Bradford, and Rincon if the A's didn't have Zito, Mulder, and Hudson. They were high round draft picks that the Athletics hit on, giving them great starting pitching (and as the Rays are showing), that is how to best build a team with no money. You have to draft well, and you have to have starting pitching.

Free Agent Watch: Phillips and Cordero

The Cincinnati Reds have 2 big free agents that they could possibly lose this offseason. Both starting 2nd basemen Brandon Phillips, and closer Francisco Cordero can test the free agent waters. The Reds have all the intent on keeping these two, as they were discussing contracts even before the season is over. First, Brandon Phillips: how much value does he have, and how much is he worth? He has already said that he will not give the Reds a "hometown discount". In 2011, he had his career high in both batting average and on base percentage. He also posted his career high WAR (4.1) and 30 years old. This is usually bad news, because this almost always adds up to a player being overpaid in the next contract. According to last year's numbers and the Halladay Standard, he deserves 12.3 million dollars. However, even though teams do it all the time, it is incredibly stupid to pay a player because of one year's performance. Instead, lets look at the 09-11. In that time, he averaged a 2.9 WAR, this would mean he is worth $8.7 million. If I were the Reds, I wouldn't go over this number (and may even go lower). I don't have a real pulse on how this situation will play out, but it seems that the Reds are really going to make sure he stays a Red. This may mean overpaying him, and could be a disaster. Now, on to Francisco Cordero. Closers are usually way overpaid (and now 7th and 8th inning guys are getting this way as well). Let me use a couple of examples, Mariano Rivera is making $15 million dollars to put up a 3.5 WAR and -3.843 PE (for those who counter that his postseason experience/success makes him invaluable, 27 of the 30 teams cannot afford to massively overpay a player just for the postseason). His own bullpen teammate David Robertson has posted a 3.9 WAR and -9.595 PE, while only making $460,000. Angels' closer Jordan Walden posted a 1.2 WAR while only making $416,000, Rangers' closer Neftali Feliz posted a 1.6 WAR while making just $457,000, and Rays' closer Kyle Farnsworth has a 1.8 WAR while making $3.25 million. This doesn't mention that a closer is not near as valuable as a starting pitcher, Alexi Ogando put up the same exact WAR as Rivera this season. With Cordero, the story isn't any different, as he made 12 million this year, while posting a WAR of 2.4, giving him a WASP way over the Halladay Standard at 5217. His WASP as a Red is 5302. This doesn't even mention that his PE was very unimpressive this year at .049. Unless Cordero is willing to take a huge pay cut, there is no way I would bring him back. However, I would not be surprised at all to see the Reds bring him back anyway.

The Mark Reynolds trade

The Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in baseball history in 2010. Their lineup also had a lot of pop, but struck out a lot. The very face of that schizophrenic lineup was Mark Reynolds. So they sent the Reynolds to the Orioles for relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio. Mark Reynolds posted a .5 WAR in 11 with the Orioles (his O-WAR was 3.0, that is how terrible he is defensively), 1.37 PPG, 2.67 PAPP, and a WASP of 9000. Mickolio only pitched 6.2 innings for Arizona and had a WAR of -.1, but is only 27 and is not a free agent until 2016. The bigger fish was clearly David Hernandez, who threw 69.1 innings in the 2011 regular season, with a -3.551 PE, and a 1.1 WAR. He also made just $421,000 and isn't a free agent until 2016. You would think trading a guy who can hit 40 homers for 2 unproven relievers wouldn't be smart, but it actually has worked out for the Diamondbacks.

Moneyball Review: David Justice

One of the main players the Athletics brought in to replace Giambi and Damon was outfielder David Justice. Justice was clearly at the end of his career (he never played after the 2002 season), and the Yankees had declared he could no longer play. As the movie stresses, they even were paying half his salary. What the movie doesn't mention is that the Yankees originally shipped Justice to the NY Mets. Exactly a week later, the Mets shipped him to the Oakland A's for Mark Guthrie and Tyler Yates. Guthrie spent 1 year with the Mets, registering a -2.245 PE in 48 innings, earning a 1.4 WAR (he had a 0 WAR in 2001 with Oakland) and 1286 WASP. Yates didn't get into the majors until 2004, and only appeared in 21 games for the Mets. They weren't good appearances either, with a -1 WAR. This means the Mets got a grand total of .4 WAR in the trade. With the Athletics, Justice produced a 1.4 WAR, .376 OBP, 2.48 PAPP, 1.0 PPG, and 5000 WASP. The WASP isn't good, until you calculate that the Athletics only paid half of his salary, then his WASP is 2500 (below the Halladay Standard). Billy Beane and company took a chance on an aging player mainly because of his OBP, and it paid off.

Free agent Watch: Reggie Willits

Angels' Outfielder Reggie Willits has been granted free agency. He has a career 2.74 PAPP, and has proved to be a pretty patient hitter. He has a career OBP of .356, which is very solid. Not much defensively at a -.3 WAR, strikes out a little much at 1 every six plate appearances. Also, has not hit a home run in over a thousand PA. He has had a negative or zero WAR in each of the past 4 seasons, but had a 1.6 WAR in 07. It also appears that his stealing ability has left him, just 9 stolen bases and 4 caught stealings in the past two years in majors and minors combined. He has a career .8 WAR in 6 seasons, meaning he really is only worth minimum wage. If you can't get him for that or a minor league contract, it is probably worth bringing him in. If not, I would pass and wait for a guy with some pop and a little bit better fielding.