NBA Salaries: which players are underpaid and which are overpaid

I don't really watch basketball, in fact, I don't even like basketball. However, since all my attempts at statistically understanding football have been on hold (just an interesting note, I did find that there is no correlation between running the ball and winning. In fact, the correlation seems to be negative.), I wanted to look at the efficiency of many basketball contracts (my interest was perked up by the claim by many in the NBA CBA negotiations that the mid-level players were vastly overpaid. I was also interested because the Dallas Mavericks have 5 players, not including free agents Chandler and Barea, scheduled to make over 7 million dollars in the upcoming season). I was a little surprised (again, I don't pay attention to basketball) that basketball seems to have some good sabermetric statistics. These include PER (Player Efficiency Rating), VA (Value Added), and EWA (Estimated Wins Added). These, especially the latter two, work like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in baseball, in fact VA is basically Runs Created above Replacement (instead its points in basketball), and EWA is just WAR. So we will use EWA here.

In 2010-2011, the top 10 players according to EWA (according to ESPN) was (listed with their 2011-2012 salary, in millions):

1	LeBron James, MIA					$16.0225							25.7
2	Dwight Howard, ORL					$17.8854							22.7
3	Dwyane Wade, MIA					$15.512							21.3
4	Kevin Durant, OKC					$13.604							19.9
5	Derrick Rose, CHI					$6.993707							19.0
6	Kobe Bryant, LAL					$25.244							18.6
7	Chris Paul, NO					$16.359805							18.3
8	Russell Westbrook, OKC					$5.082415							17.9
	Pau Gasol, LAL					$18.71415							17.9
10	Kevin Love, MIN					$4.609,704							16.7

Using WASP formula (check the pages above if you don't know what that is), Westbrook (284), Love (276), and Rose (368) are the best deals above. Because of the difference in EWA and WAR in baseball, one cannot simply import the Halladay Standard that we use to evaluate baseball contracts. If we did, Lebron James would be worth an absurd 77 million dollars. Lebron James is probably not the right example to hold to a standard, since it is widely understood that James took less money to join the Heat. Instead, I think Kobe Bryant (1357 WASP) is probably a better measuring stick. For convenience sake, we will round the Bryant standard to 1400. The other 9 players are all below the Bryant standard. The median EWA for NBA players is about 2 to 2.1, worth about 2.8 million. The average NBA salary is just over 5 million. So according to the Bryant Standard, the Median player is probably overvalued (this is simply fact, I am not arguing that the billionaire owners have a point in that the players are overpaid. The owners are, after all, the ones that signed the contracts, and it is pretty obvious that the new CBA really hurts the players. Because their are fewer players on basketball rosters than baseball rosters (usually about twice as much), basketball players deserve to be paid more it would seem (since their are half as many games in a basketball season, the ratio should probably be 1.5)). Along with the Bryant Standard, we also now have what I will call the Median Standard, which is 5 million dollars for 2 EWA, a 2500 WASP. Any contract that is above this standard is a bad contract for the team (again, its the teams fault if they pay a player more than he is worth, not the player).

So who are some notable undervalued players?:

Blake Griffin: 355
Dirk Nowitzki: 1266
Eric Gordon: 451
Ramon Sessions: 500
Luis Scola: 1035
JaVale McGee: 333
Greg Monroe: 412
Dorell Wright: 528

So there are plenty of good deals out there. Most of the above are what we would call upper middle class type players (excluding Dirk), but  they are (for the most part, excluding Dirk of course) making under average salary. Of course there are overpaid players as well, here are some:

Brenden Haywood: 10892
Antawn Jamison: 3015
Richard Jefferson: 3867
Brandon Roy: 6791
Marcus Camby: 3560
Carmelo Anthony: 3367
Chauncey Billups: 5462

I found this interesting, let me know what you think.

The NBA, NFL Lockout and Government Shutdowns

The NBA owners have joined the NFL by locking out the players. This one is actually considered worse than the NFL lockout, as NBA owners are trying to destroy the players' union and cut their pay. The owners refuse to share the money between the teams as well, as some teams are losing money, while others are raking it in. This gives some teams like the Mavericks and Heat huge competitive advantages over teams like the Clippers and Bucks. Since owners like Mark Cuban are unwilling to share with other owners or players, they are shutting the league down, which would not only hurt the players and jilt fans, but will hurt stadium workers and other small workers we usually don't think about when we think of sports. The NFL lockout may be close to being resolved, but it is still going on and now because of the possibilities of training camp cancellations, many cities may lose money. When cities lose money, they are forced to either raise taxes or cut services. This is all because millionaires and billionaires can't agree on how to split up $9 billion dollars of NFL revenue.

The Minnesota State Government has entered a shut down, largely over a refusal to raise taxes. Things like battered women shelters and food shelters are now being at least temporarily closed. 2/3rds of State employees are now basically out of a job. Protesters in the capital have been chanting “Tax the Rich”, something the government is refusing to do. The GOP in the state is actually using the government shutdown to fundraise.

At the Federal level, the debt ceiling debate threatens to destroy America's credit rating and devastate the American economy. Again, this is mainly because of a refusal to raise taxes on the very wealthy, especially on the part of Republicans. The United States Congress is made up of 245 millionaires. Millionaire Senator Jeff Sessions called the idea that millionaires need to share the budget pain “pathetic”. When rich people make decisions, it tends to benefit rich people, and when they disagree, they always seem to hurt us.

The Mavericks: the typical Hollywood story

Its a story that was made in some lame Hollywood studio (and the NBA would know about acting). A team that hasn't won a title in their 30 years of existence, a team that has won 50 games every year for the past decade only to have playoff disappointment after disappointment, finally wins the championship.

You won't see me post much on basketball here, in fact it may be my only post, but this is special. Not just because its a championship, but because of the story and being emotionally tied to the team. I have grown up in Central/North/West Texas my whole life, and I remember Dirk coming to the Mavericks, I

even remember when Steve Nash played for them. I watched the 06 finals when the Mavs collapsed and Wade couldn't do wrong and anyone who touched him was immediately executed by the referees and sacrificed to the god Camazotz. I also remember last year, when the Mavericks had a great season, only to get their heads bashed in by the Spurs. So at the start of this season, I had no hope for the Mavericks. Even when they made the playoffs I, just like the majority of local radio hosts, had them losing in the first round to Portland. The 23 point collapse on April 23rd just seemed to confirm all the

pessimism towards the team. However, they bounced back and end up winning the series. Even more shocking was that the Lakers laid down and the Mavericks pounced, sweeping them. Then the Mavericks handled Oklahoma City, allowing even the most cynical Dallas fans (I might be the most) to allow for some hope. Watching Dirk run off the court into the hallway after the Mavs won the title was straight out of some corny sports film. The Heat played the role of every "bad guy" showboating

powerful team that gets beat at the end (of course watching Mike Bibby get minutes was more like watching the not-as-funny sequel to Grumpy Old Men). Its stories and moments like this that remind every sports fan why they waste all their lives listening to Stan Van Gundy yell out fragmented grunts into a microphone.

Bold Prediction: Mark Cuban's ego becomes so massive that it sues Cuba for all its worth, and succeeds the Castros and every citizen of the country will be forced to watch Shark Tank.