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Saturday, December 31, 2011
Grading the Carlos Quentin trade
The WhiteSox traded Carlos Quentin to the Padres for pitchers Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.
Quentin had a 3.2 WAR in 2011, but had an even 0 WAR over 2009-2010. The difference was his defense, as he had a 2.4 O-WAR in both 2010 and 2011. However, his D-WAR was -2.8 in 2009-2010, but .8 in 2011. He simply played much better in the field in 2011, with a horrible .959 fielding percentage in 2010, but a .994 fielding percentage in 2011. However, his range factor stayed about the same, and it is well below average. His career D-WAR is -.7, and he should still be considered a below average fielder. Offensively, Quentin has a .346 OBP, 116 OPS +, and 1.874 O4S. He has pretty monster power, with a .238 ISO, and a good Secondary Average of .344. In the end he is a pretty good offensive player, with 5.8 runs created per game and a .581 Offensive Winning Percentage. He homers 5% percent of the time, about double the average player, and is an above average walker and extra base hitter. However, due to a poor Pit/PA, he has a PPS that is not very good at 86.98.
Castro spent 2011 split between AAA and AA. His 8 career AAA starts in the PCL have been extremely poor, but at 36 innings, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to judge him by that alone. As a starter n AA, 39 starts, he has a PE of -.343, which translates to about a 3.23 PE in the Majors. This of course would be horrible, so Castro can't be expected to contribute in 2012. He could, of course, improve and be part of the future, but there isn't a lot to suggest he will, and he doesn't offer any kind of immediate impact. He does keep the ball in the ballpark and has a good K/BB ratio.
Hernandez has just 4 AAA starts, and he struggled there as well, his 8 AA starts were better, but not a big enough sample size. Overall in his minor league career, he has split between both a starter and a reliever. In that time he has a PE of -.55, nothing impressive. However, he has had a FIP lower than his ERA in every stop he has made. Therefore, it makes some sense to cut him some slack and adjust his PE to about -.9. This probably projects to about a 2.4 PE, which isn't good as a starter or a reliever. He doesn't hardly walk anyone, and doesn't give up very many homers, so there is always that for the future, but it doesn't seem like Hernandez will have a 2012 impact.
Of course, the WhiteSox are in rebuilding mode, so as it is quite obvious the Padres win the trade for 2012, that really doesn't matter to Kenny Williams. With that said, I think that you would want to get a little bit more for the type of player Quentin is. There is the injury and defensive concerns with Quentin, but the Padres definitely need the bat.
Quentin had a 3.2 WAR in 2011, but had an even 0 WAR over 2009-2010. The difference was his defense, as he had a 2.4 O-WAR in both 2010 and 2011. However, his D-WAR was -2.8 in 2009-2010, but .8 in 2011. He simply played much better in the field in 2011, with a horrible .959 fielding percentage in 2010, but a .994 fielding percentage in 2011. However, his range factor stayed about the same, and it is well below average. His career D-WAR is -.7, and he should still be considered a below average fielder. Offensively, Quentin has a .346 OBP, 116 OPS +, and 1.874 O4S. He has pretty monster power, with a .238 ISO, and a good Secondary Average of .344. In the end he is a pretty good offensive player, with 5.8 runs created per game and a .581 Offensive Winning Percentage. He homers 5% percent of the time, about double the average player, and is an above average walker and extra base hitter. However, due to a poor Pit/PA, he has a PPS that is not very good at 86.98.
Castro spent 2011 split between AAA and AA. His 8 career AAA starts in the PCL have been extremely poor, but at 36 innings, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to judge him by that alone. As a starter n AA, 39 starts, he has a PE of -.343, which translates to about a 3.23 PE in the Majors. This of course would be horrible, so Castro can't be expected to contribute in 2012. He could, of course, improve and be part of the future, but there isn't a lot to suggest he will, and he doesn't offer any kind of immediate impact. He does keep the ball in the ballpark and has a good K/BB ratio.
Hernandez has just 4 AAA starts, and he struggled there as well, his 8 AA starts were better, but not a big enough sample size. Overall in his minor league career, he has split between both a starter and a reliever. In that time he has a PE of -.55, nothing impressive. However, he has had a FIP lower than his ERA in every stop he has made. Therefore, it makes some sense to cut him some slack and adjust his PE to about -.9. This probably projects to about a 2.4 PE, which isn't good as a starter or a reliever. He doesn't hardly walk anyone, and doesn't give up very many homers, so there is always that for the future, but it doesn't seem like Hernandez will have a 2012 impact.
Of course, the WhiteSox are in rebuilding mode, so as it is quite obvious the Padres win the trade for 2012, that really doesn't matter to Kenny Williams. With that said, I think that you would want to get a little bit more for the type of player Quentin is. There is the injury and defensive concerns with Quentin, but the Padres definitely need the bat.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Pitches Per Plate Appearance: Reliever Edition
Now we saw with Starting Pitchers that their was a slight positive correlation between pitches thrown per plate appearance and pitching efficiency. Here, I do the same survey with relievers. I used the NL West, with the requirements that the pitcher had no starts, at least 10 relief appearances, and tried to only use pitchers who had at least 2 years of MLB experience. Click on the images to enlarge.
12 of the relievers had a negative correlation for the more pitches per plate appearance, while 10 had a positive reaction. 17 had no real correlation. This means, as we saw with starting pitchers, it is basically worthless to argue that a change in Pitch/PA had any kind of effect on a change in effectiveness in a pitcher. However, like starting pitchers, pitchers who throw more pitches on average are more efficient. Pitchers that had at least 4 pitches per plate appearance had an average PE of -2.44. Relievers that averaged less than 3.7 Pit/PA had an average PE of .88. This probably is best explained by the fact that pitching efficiency relies heavily on strikeouts and to strike people out, you usually have to throw more pitches. However, it does seem that all the elite relievers are heavy strikeout pitchers. So while Pit/PA can't be an explanation for why a pitcher is good or bad one year, it seems that the larger Pit/PA a pitcher (both for starters and relievers)
has the better he is (at least on average).
has the better he is (at least on average).
Nationals add Mike Ballard
The Nationals have signed Mike Ballard to a minor league contract. In 4 years in AAA (in both the International League and the PCL), and has a miserable 4.06 PE, mostly as a starter. In 2011, he pitched in both AA and AAA, in AA he had a -2.83 PE as a starter, and in AAA he had a 2.93 PE as a starter. It seems that although his AA numbers suggest that just maybe he can make it in the big leagues, he has absolutely hit a wall in AAA. If he can't get AAA hitters out, it is unlikely that he can magically get MLB hitters out. He really struggled with homers in AAA, giving up 1.1 HR/9IP, he has a decent SO/BB ratio, because he doesn't hardly walk anyone (even though he doesn't have a standout strikeout rate). He has had a better FIP than ERA over the last two years, but not drastically better. Every year there are inconsequential minor league signings used to just fill out rosters, and this is another one of those.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Evaluating the Andrew Bailey trade
The Oakland Athletics sent Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox
Andrew Bailey has a 7.2 WAR over his 3 year career, a 2.4 WAR average. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He has a sparkling -4.096 PE and -3.426 adjusted PE. He has a spectacular TR of 13.52, and FIP - of 67. So for the past 3 years, Andrew Bailey has been one of the elite relief pitchers in the game. There is some cause for concern though. It seems there has been some regression. In 09 he had a WAR of 3.9, then a 2.4 in 10, and just a .9 in 2009. His PE was -2.37 in 2011, -2.75 Adjusted, and a FIP - of 73, and a SIERA of 2.99. These numbers are hard to complain about, and as long as the regression doesn't continue, they are still really good. There is also the point of small sample sizes, he pitched just over 40 innings in both 2010 and 2011.
Ryan Sweeney had a .8 WAR in 2011, with a 1.53 WAR average over the past 3 years. He is also arbitration eligible. In his career, he has a 1.5 D-WAR, with an above average Range Factor and Fielding Percentage. He did struggle in 2011, costing his team 3-5 runs above average. Offensively, he has a .342 OBP, 1.746 O4S, 95 OPS +, .196 Secondary Average, and .096 ISO. He has 4.5 Runs Created per Game and a .461 Offensive Winning Percentage. He made 1.4 million dollars in 2011.
Josh Reddick has a 1.9 WAR in 403 PA, not quite a full season. Adjusted for 600 PA, it is a 2.86 WAR. He isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he will make around half a million dollars in 2012. While proving to be an excellent defender, his offensive statistics are very poor so far. He has an O4S of 1.576, OPS + of 86, and .464 Offensive Winning Percentage. However, he has better Secondary Average and ISOs then Sweeney, at .227 and .168. This certainly gives you hope (along with his WAR projection) that he will be better than Sweeney. On the other hand, his AAA statistics are very unimpressive in over a full season of work, with just a .748 OPS, projecting to a poor .682 OPS in MLB.
Miles Head has never been above A ball, and has decent but not over impressive statistics at a .351 OBP, 1.85 O4S, and .172 ISO. He does walk almost 10 percent of the time. At first base, he is about average, perhaps a little bit better according to Range Factor.
Raul Alcantara is a similar story, he hasn't played above A-ball, but he is a starting pitcher. In 26 starts, he has an unspectacular .0369 PE, although his FIP is lower than his ERA. But even if his PE is an even 0, that doesn't translate well, and his lack of strikeouts (6 K/9IP) is concerning. However, his ERA is nice, and his K/BB ratio is a very very good 4.2. He is just a contact pitcher. Some have been very successful, and he can be if his HR/9IP stays at .1.
I give the nod to the Red Sox in this trade, it appears that Reddick is the best player in the trade according to WAR, but his poor offense concerns me for the A's. Sweeney is almost certainly a downgrade (especially with declining defense) from Reddick, but they add Bailey, who is a (although declining) solid closer. Although prospect gurus seem to like Alcantara and Head, their numbers make it hard for me to fall in love with them. Of course, who wins the trade will depend on how they do, but I still think the Sox have a slight edge.
Andrew Bailey has a 7.2 WAR over his 3 year career, a 2.4 WAR average. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He has a sparkling -4.096 PE and -3.426 adjusted PE. He has a spectacular TR of 13.52, and FIP - of 67. So for the past 3 years, Andrew Bailey has been one of the elite relief pitchers in the game. There is some cause for concern though. It seems there has been some regression. In 09 he had a WAR of 3.9, then a 2.4 in 10, and just a .9 in 2009. His PE was -2.37 in 2011, -2.75 Adjusted, and a FIP - of 73, and a SIERA of 2.99. These numbers are hard to complain about, and as long as the regression doesn't continue, they are still really good. There is also the point of small sample sizes, he pitched just over 40 innings in both 2010 and 2011.
Ryan Sweeney had a .8 WAR in 2011, with a 1.53 WAR average over the past 3 years. He is also arbitration eligible. In his career, he has a 1.5 D-WAR, with an above average Range Factor and Fielding Percentage. He did struggle in 2011, costing his team 3-5 runs above average. Offensively, he has a .342 OBP, 1.746 O4S, 95 OPS +, .196 Secondary Average, and .096 ISO. He has 4.5 Runs Created per Game and a .461 Offensive Winning Percentage. He made 1.4 million dollars in 2011.
Josh Reddick has a 1.9 WAR in 403 PA, not quite a full season. Adjusted for 600 PA, it is a 2.86 WAR. He isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he will make around half a million dollars in 2012. While proving to be an excellent defender, his offensive statistics are very poor so far. He has an O4S of 1.576, OPS + of 86, and .464 Offensive Winning Percentage. However, he has better Secondary Average and ISOs then Sweeney, at .227 and .168. This certainly gives you hope (along with his WAR projection) that he will be better than Sweeney. On the other hand, his AAA statistics are very unimpressive in over a full season of work, with just a .748 OPS, projecting to a poor .682 OPS in MLB.
Miles Head has never been above A ball, and has decent but not over impressive statistics at a .351 OBP, 1.85 O4S, and .172 ISO. He does walk almost 10 percent of the time. At first base, he is about average, perhaps a little bit better according to Range Factor.
Raul Alcantara is a similar story, he hasn't played above A-ball, but he is a starting pitcher. In 26 starts, he has an unspectacular .0369 PE, although his FIP is lower than his ERA. But even if his PE is an even 0, that doesn't translate well, and his lack of strikeouts (6 K/9IP) is concerning. However, his ERA is nice, and his K/BB ratio is a very very good 4.2. He is just a contact pitcher. Some have been very successful, and he can be if his HR/9IP stays at .1.
I give the nod to the Red Sox in this trade, it appears that Reddick is the best player in the trade according to WAR, but his poor offense concerns me for the A's. Sweeney is almost certainly a downgrade (especially with declining defense) from Reddick, but they add Bailey, who is a (although declining) solid closer. Although prospect gurus seem to like Alcantara and Head, their numbers make it hard for me to fall in love with them. Of course, who wins the trade will depend on how they do, but I still think the Sox have a slight edge.
The Yankees sign Hideki Okajima
The Yankees have announced that they have signed reliever Hideki Okajima to a minor league deal. In his 5 Major League seasons, Okajima has a -1.164 PE and -.414 Adjusted PE. However, his last full year in the big leagues was 2010, and it wasn't near as good, as he had an awful 2.96 Adjusted PE. He struggled big time with BABIP, as it was .344, and homers with 1.17 HR/9IP. His FIP - was 106, and a 4.39 SIERA. He put up a 6.2 WAR in his first 3 seasons, and then just .1 WAR in his last 2. In 2011, he spent most of the year in AAA, and he had a very nice PE of -3.19, which would translate to about a -.63 PE in the majors. The big questions are whether his low groundball rate and sometimes high home run rate will cripple him in Yankee Stadium. However, at least the way he pitched in AAA last year, it appears Okajima can still pitch in the Majors, and seems to be a steal for Brian Cashman and company.
For those curious, Okajima had a PE of about -5.02, or a projected PE of -2.974. Okajima certainly performed under that level, and some of it could be explained by difference of age. Hideki was certainly past his prime age by the time he came to America.
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For those curious, Okajima had a PE of about -5.02, or a projected PE of -2.974. Okajima certainly performed under that level, and some of it could be explained by difference of age. Hideki was certainly past his prime age by the time he came to America.
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Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Lastings Milledge goes to Japan
The Yakult Swallows of Japan have signed Lastings Milledge to a $570,000 (converted to American currency) dollar contract. The average NPB salary is $420,000. According to Gen Sueyoshi (you can see the post here: http://yakyubaka.com/npb-salaries/2011-yakult-swallows-salary-report/ and follow him on twitter @gwynar), the Swallows had a payroll of 2491.1 Million Yen, or 32 million dollars in 2011. The NPB season is 144 games, so a "replacement team" (0 WAR players would win 32% of their games according to the official WAR calculus) would win 46 games. To win the Central League (the league that Yakult belongs) in 2011, Chunichi won 75 games. That seems like a goal-line, so a team expecting to win their league needs 29 Wins Above Replacement. So the Swallows have 32 million dollars to get those 29 Wins, so they can spend 1.1 million dollars per WAR. Therefore, at a salary of 570k, Milledge would need about a .5 WAR. So we will use Milledge's MLB statistics (along with his 2011 AAA numbers) and the metrics we have designed for NPB baseball to project Millddge's success. Milledge is a horrible defender, earning a -3.3 D-WAR in 6 seasons, or -.55 D-WAR a year. Depending on whether you trust BaseballProjection or BaseballInfoSolutions, Milledge cost his team 44 or 10 runs more than an average fielder in his career. With the bat, Milledge had a .328 OBP, .723 OPS, .94 PPG, 2.96 PAPP. This translates to a .361 OBP, .789 OPS, 1.43 PPG, 2.22 PAPP according to our Japanese metric. This is a 2.68 Simple WAR, and even with subtracting his -.55 D-WAR, you still get a 2.13 WAR, well worth the 570k the Swallows will give him. In 2011, he spent basically the whole year in AAA. He had a .364 OBP and .805 OPS there. Converted to Major League Statistics, this is a .318 OBP and .713 OPS, pretty replacement level, but it is a .351 OBP and .779 OPS projection for the NPB. This is pretty similar to what his MLB numbers stated. All in all, expect Milledge to make a pretty nice impact offensively in the NPB and turn out to be a nice signing for the Swallows.
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