Durham Bulls metric: Minor Leagues

 I have been extremely curious as to what the difference between AAA and the Majors is. So here, in a relatively small sample, I set out to find some answers. I will use current Tampa Bay Rays players (along with a couple former ones) difference between their Major League careers and their AAA Durham Bulls career. Since Durham plays in the International AAA league, I think it will be safe to (currently at least) use the metric for all International AAA league players.

Wade Davis: In Durham: -1.642 PE, In Majors: 2.275 PE and .77 WAR a season

Carl Crawford: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.55 PAPP, .335 OBP and 1.07 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.48 PPG, 2.5 PAPP, .333 OBP, and 2.74 WAR a season.

Delmon Young: In Durham: 1.54 PPG, 2.66 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .423 Simple WAR . In Majors: 1.17 PPG, 2.93 PAPP, .321, and -.1 WAR.

Jeremy Hellickson: In Durham: -4.86 PE, In Majors: .32 PE, and 4.2 WAR in 2011 (his only full season)

J.P. Howell: In Durham: -3.435 PE, In Majors: -.021 PE, and .45 WAR a season

Jake McGee: In Durham:  -6.713 PE, In Majors: -.986 PE, and .01 WAR a season

Jeff Niemann: In Durham: -.785 PE, In Majors: 1.3 PE, and 1.1 WAR a season

David Price: In Durham: -.699 PE, In Majors: -1.3 PE, and 3.33 WAR a season

James Shields: In Durham: -2.722 PE, In Majors: .24 PE, and 2.95 WAR a season

Andy Sonnanstine: In Durham: 1.182 PE, In Majors: 3.77 PE, and -.08 WAR a season

John Jaso: In Durham: .91 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .356 OBP, and 1.81 Simple WAR. In Majors: .84 PPG, 2.83 PAPP, .340 OBP, 1.25 WAR a season

Reid Brignac: In Durham: 1.08 PPG, 3.03 PAPP, .316 OBP, and -.56 Simple WAR. In Majors: .63 PPG, 3.54 PAPP, .272 OBP, -.05 WAR a season

Dan Johnson: In Durham: 1.65 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .412 OBP and 5.88 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.01 PPG, 2.74 PAPP, .334 OBP, .58 WAR a season.

Elliot Johnson: In Durham: 1.23 PPG, 2.75 PAPP, .325 OBP, and .09 Simple WAR. In Majors: .61 PPG, 4 PAPP, .257 OBP, .1 WAR

Ben Zobrist: In Durham: 1.38 PPG, 2.24 PAPP, .416 OBP, and 5.14 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.27 PPG, 2.56 PAPP, .348 OBP, 2.28 WAR a season.

Desmond Jennings: In Durham: 1.53 PPG, 2.3 PAPP, .375 OBP, and 3.4 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.35 PPG, 2.488 PAPP, .351 OBP, 2.2 WAR

Matt Joyce: In Durham: 1.49 PPG, 2.19 PAPP, .404 OBP, and 5.11 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.11 PPG, 2.58 PAPP, .345 OBP, and 1.75 a season

Justin Ruggiano: In Durham: 1.63 PPG, 2.36 PAPP, .362 OBP, and 2.53 Simple WAR. In Majors: .55 PPG, 3.39 PAPP, .262 OBP, and -.2 WAR

B.J. Upton: In Durham: 1.69 PPG, 2.21 PAPP, .391 OBP, and 4.48 Simple WAR. In Majors: 1.37 PPG, 2.48 PAPP, .342 OBP, and 2.41 WAR a season.

Pitchers: In Durham:  -2.46 PE Average. In Majors: .7 PE Average, 1.59 WAR a season. Average pitcher going from Durham (or International League in AAA) would add 2.53 to their PE. WAR is not particularly helpful because the correlation between PE and WAR is skewed, because both PE (the lower the better) and WAR (the higher is better) are lower for pitchers.

Hitters: In Durham: 1.44 PPG average, 2.34 PAPP average, .365 OBP average, and 2.67 Simple WAR average. In Majors: 1.04 PPG average, 2.91 PAPP average, .319 OBP average, 1.18 WAR average. So on average, a player loses 1.49 from there simple WAR to their Major League WAR, lose .046 from their OBP, add .57 to their PAPP, and lose .40 from their PPG. So, for now at least, this is how we judge players in the International AAA league.

Too early to call a bust?: Josh Vitters

Josh Vitters has started off hot in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 2 homers and driving in 8 in only 5 games. He is hitting .381, but he hasn't walked yet, and this seems to be a symptom of his career.  Vitters was a first round pick in 07. He has a career .319 OBP in minors. His OPS is just 758, and his PPG is less than impressive at 1.18. Because he isn't a guy who walks, his PAPP is worse, at 3.03.  He isn't any good out in the field either, with a fielding percentage of only .923. He is really terrible at 3rd base. At a .970 fielding percentage, Yuni Betancourt has a career -1.7 WAR on defense from 2005-2011. Vitters is better at first base with a .983. However, Mitch Moreland of the Texas Rangers is at .995 at first and still has a negative defensive WAR. His range factor is only 2.23 at third. At first, it is better at 7.44, but that is still not good. Even Ryan Howard, considered a horrible first-baseman, has a range factor of 9.41, and Prince Fielder has a 8.99.
He is never been past AAA. Taken 3rd overall in that draft, he has seen the first and second pick, David Price and Mike Moustakas, already have success in the big leagues. Some guys taken right after him, Matt Weiters, Matt LaPorta, and Ross Detwiler have also had success in the Majors. It doesn't like Vitters is ready to take the next step either, as his OBP in AA is .313. It is not like he can make up for it with great power either, with just one bomb every 35.4 PA. People wonder why the Cubs aren't good, it is because they don't draft well. It is hard to build a team, even with their payroll, if you don't draft well.

Why you should be impressed with the Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays are just 3 and a half games back from the Red Sox, with the Yankees a game and a half behind them, in what is widely considered the best division in baseball. Why write an article about a third place team? Well lets crunch some numbers:

The Yankees have a payroll of 197 million dollars, the Red Sox (third in the rankings) have a 160 million dollar payroll. The Tampa Bay Rays have just a 42 million dollar payroll, the second lowest in the majors. That means that the Rays are competing with teams that have over 4 times their payroll. Johnny Damon is the highest paid player on the Rays, but if he played for the Yankees, he would be the 11th highest paid player.

This past offseason they lost Matt Garza (one of their top starters), Carlos Pena (starting first baseman and a power hitter), Rafael Soriano (closer), Joaquin Beniot (setup man), and Carl Crawford (clearly their best player, and stud outfielder who could run, hit, and field). To make matters worse, Soriano and Crawford went to division rivals Yankees and Red Sox. This doesn't even mention the Manny Ramirez debacle, who was their second biggest acquisition in the offseason (their first being Johnny Damon), only to not hit in the first couple weeks off the season, fail a steroid test, and then retire.

They aren't without players, David Price is a Cy Young caliber pitcher (James Shields is having that kind of season currently), Damon is solid, Matt Joyce is having an All Star Season, Sam Fuld is an incredibly fun player to watch, and Evan Longoria is starting to feel it, and when he is on, he is one of the best in baseball. However, when your going up against A-Rod, Adrian Gonzalez, Jon Lester, and C.C. Sabathia, its hard to call the Rays “loaded” in any sense.

Joe Maddon may be the smartest man to ever don a managerial uniform. I remember when he was hired, the Rays had not had any success whatsoever in franchise history. I remember some analysts insisting that he would be the guy that could turn it around because he was that good. I exhibited my cynical skepticism and insisted "Lou Pinella couldn't make them good, neither can this guy". My ignorance and wrongheadedness should be enough to disqualify me from writing any posts on baseball.

Call me back in August and we will judge whether this article was worth writing or not, but the Rays are having a heck of a season so far, and people should be impressed. If the Rays continue to stay in the race, then Maddon has to be manager of the year for the AL.

Bold Prediction: The United States Government, with nothing better to do, shuts down this blog for being so misinformed.