Jose Ramirez Scouting Report

Jose Ramirez, the RHP prospect for the New York Yankees, pitched against some Red Sox hitters, mostly established MLB hitters, in a spring training game on TV, so I watched and took some notes.

The 10 fastballs I counted in his first inning averaged 93.8 MPH, with 95 MPH the hardest I saw (according to the YES gun). He didn't hit the 96-97 MPH range that I have heard he is capable of, but, even when adjusting for a semi relief outing for him, that is good MLB velocity.

He has pretty clean looking mechanics, with a delivery that doesn't seem to use much effort. He is listed at 6-1, but he just looks really long, and though he is not lanky, he gets good looking extension. His arm comes out as a 3/4 type release point. He has a definite swing or sling in his arm, and doesn't appear to be taking a real solid stride. It also really looked like he dropped almost sidearm a couple of times. This is when I wish there was Pitch F/X data so we could check to see what his release point looked like.

The off-speed pitch he showed was a 85-88 MPH changeup that seemed to have solid dip, as it dropped off the table well a couple times. He did leave on up for a base hit, but he struck out Mike Napoli, a fellow righty, with it. I don't like it when he throws it for a strike, because it didn't dip as much when he did. It also doesn't seem to have much horizontal movement, which is another reason it isn't a strike pitch or more of a chase change.

I didn't see the breaking ball (except maybe a 89 MPH slider that had some movement but he yanked it glove side past the catcher), which is what I have heard is the problem.

Obviously you want to see that third pitch to see whether or not he is a legit MLB starter, but remember, Ramirez hasn't thrown a pitch above A+. He turned 23 this off-season, so you expect him to pitch in AA, and he needs to have a good season to stay on track of being a starting pitcher prospect. As far as limiting walks, he finally took a step forward in 2012 after stalling for a couple of years. He has always been a solid strikeout pitcher statistically.

Is Jeff Mathis worth it for the Angels?

Jeff Mathis is widely regarded as a great defensive catcher. So great, that he can not hit at all, and still be the starting catcher for the Angels. They believe that he is so valuable that he is worth keeping around. This is obviously not the case, as he had a -.3 WAR in 2011, actually an improvement from his 2010 season, where he had a  -1.2 WAR. He registered a .2 D-WAR in 2011, but had a -.6 D-WAR (-.6 is his career D-WAR) in 2010. According to runs saved statistics, he has actually cost his team runs, and his percentage of balls fielded turning into outs is lower than league average. He catches less  base stealers than league average, but he does have a better than average range factor. His offensive statistics are hideous, at a .557 OPS, .257 OBP, and a -1.9 O-WAR for his career. His PPG is just .72, and his PAPP is a disgusting 3.84. He seemingly can't hit the ball really hard either, at a .249 BABIP, which is weird since he is a flyball hitter. The explanation for this is found pretty quickly, as 24% of his flyballs don't leave the infield (league average is like 12%). His secondary average is terrible at .186, and his ISO sits at .107. His PPS is just 82.36, further cementing that Mathis is a liability in that lineup. Whatever imagined (and it is imagined) benefit Mathis gives the team defensively, he makes up for it by being one of the worst offensive players in all categories in the league. When your looking at why the Angels have fallen off a bit, it isn't hard to figure out. They have made a whole bunch of dumb roster moves.

The Rangers, Cliff Lee, Beltre, and Napoli

Around the World Series, I heard a member of the Dallas media say that the Rangers used the money they would have spent on Cliff Lee and spent it on Beltre and Napoli and that is why they were in the World Series. So I wanted to look at the numbers.

They lost: 
Cliff Lee: 6.8 WAR 11 million dollars (will make 21.5 million in 2012)
Frank Francisco: 1.1 WAR 4 million dollars.

They gained:
Mike Napoli: 5.5 WAR 5.8 million dollars
Adrian Beltre: 5.2 WAR 14 million dollars.

The Rangers lost 7.9 WAR (at 15 million dollars), but gained 10.7 WAR (19.8 million dollars). So by signing Beltre instead of Lee and trading Francisco for Napoli (the most lopsided trade of the year), they gained 2.8 WAR at 4.8 extra million dollars, a 1714 WASP, meaning they got good return for the extra money they had to spend. Cliff Lee and Frank Francisco put up a 1898 WASP, while Beltre and Napoli put up a 1850 WASP, meaning the Rangers gained a slight efficiency with these moves.

In this article, I wanted to see if the Angels had any reason whatsoever to trade Mike Napoli. His 2011 .414 OBP, and 1.046 OPS were clearly career highs, and it is hard to imagine anyone would have predicted this. But how was he as an Angel? A .346 OBP, .831 OPS, and 2.14 WAR average in his 5 years in LA is nothing to sneeze about. In fact, every single one of those numbers are better than Vernon Wells numbers in Toronto. Just a straight up trade would have been a loss, and the Angels also sent Juan Rivera to Toronto. I know a big reason for the trade was Napoli's defense, but Vernon Wells also has a career negative D-WAR. Every year in LA, Napoli had an offensive winning percentage of over 50%, and he had a 2.61 PAPP. You just don't find catchers like that. He also had a really impressive 102.73 PPS.

As far as Adrian Beltre goes, he is a hard one to figure out. He has been a notorious contract year player, which made his 2011 season that much more surprising. In 2004 with the Dodgers, he put together one of the alltime great seasons, posting a 10.1 WAR. The next year, his first year in Seattle, he posted just a 1.9 WAR. He then followed up his last year in Seattle with a 1.1 WAR, then had a 6.1 WAR with the Red Sox the next year. One thing you notice about Beltre, a mediocre OBP at .329 on his career. A lack of patience becomes apparent, only walking 6.8% of the time, and seeing a league average 3.76 pitches per plate appearance (leads to about a league average 89.95). When this happens, BABIP and power becomes even more important.  In 2004, he had a 1.79 PPG, in 2005 it was 1.14 PPG. In 2009 he had a 1.07 PPG, but in 2010 was 1.4. You wouldn't think power would fluctuate that much, but in 2004 he hit a homer 7.3% of the time, but in 09 it was just 1.7% and for his career it is 3.9%. We saw this when we looked at Vernon Wells in a previous post, impatient hitters tend to be inconsistent, and I think that is what we see with Beltre.

Grading Tony Reagins time in LA

After missing the playoffs for the second year, the Angels fired GM Tony Reagins. So its time to see where he messed up (and what he got right). Firstly, I have already written about the Scott Kazmir trade, and the absolute failure that was, so I feel no need to address that. Also, because he was only there for 4 years, it is really too soon to really be able to address all his drafts. So we will focus on key trades and signings. One of his first major moves was trading Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland before the 08 season. Cabrera put up a 2.1 WAR with the White Sox in his only year there, making 10 million. This is a WASP well above the Halladay Standard at 4761. Garland, also playing just 1 year for the Angels, had just a 1 WAR and a 12 million dollar salary. This was an obvious loss. During 08, he traded Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek for Mark Texiera. Marek has not played in the big leagues, and Kotchman put up just a .8 WAR for the Braves, and a 4512 WASP, while Texiera put up a 3.3 WAR and 1893 WASP with the Angels. This doesn't even include that they drafted Mike Trout (.9 WAR so far) and Garrett Richards (-.2 WAR so far) with the draft picks they got for losing Texiera in free agency. This was an obvious win, and the Braves don't want to hear the word Texiera anymore because that was two really bad trades for them. In 2010, the Angels sent Joe Saunders and two minor league players who have yet to reach the big leagues for Dan Haren. Haren has a 6.8 WAR as an Angel and a 2482 WASP. Saunders has a 2.2 WAR with the Diamondbacks and a 3340 WASP. Another win for the Angels, so far (it will depend on what the minor league players do for Arizona). However, the biggest disaster was before the 2011 season, when he shipped Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for Vernon Wells. Wells put up a negative .2 WAR and made 23 million dollars (a vomit inducing 50600 WASP). Rivera was pretty terrible with the Jays, and was moved to the Dodgers. Napoli was immediately moved to rival Texas Rangers were he put up a 5.5 WAR and very good 1054 WASP. That move alone is probably the biggest reason Reagins was fired.

Now signings: Torii Hunter is 4 years through a 5 year $90 million deal. So far, he has posted a 13 WAR. He would have to pull off the most amazing season in baseball history (a 17 WAR is what he needs) to meet the Halladay Standard for the contract. So, they gave him way too much money. Brian Fuentes was also given way too much money, registering a 8667 WASP in his time in LA. Add, Bobby Abreu to that list as well, a 4893 WASP. Fernando Rodney a 55000 WASP, Hideki Matsui a 4285, Joel Pinero 10667, and Hisanori Takahashi 19000, all well above the Halladay Standard of 3000. Scott Downs was the only really good sign at a 2272 WASP. Reagins' era as GM was an era of a couple bad trades, and some really bad signings. We will see in the next few years how his drafts work out, but it appears that Reagins really set this organization back and a move was warranted.

Series Recap: Rangers versus Rays

With their 4-3 win today at the Trop, the Rangers beat the Rays in the ALDS for the second straight year (this year in 3 games to 1, last year was 3 games to 2). I had picked the Rangers to win the AL Pennant at the start of playoff previews, but end up selecting the Rays to win the series after seeing the statistics (the Rangers had a better lineup and bullpen, while the Rays had better starters and fielding). I had predicted that this would be a close series, and even though it didn't go 5 games, it was a close series. The Rays weaker bullpen certainly hurt them, especially in games 2 and 3. It should be that statistics provide percentages. It was unlikely that James Shields would have very little command in his start, but it happened. Statistics are best with big samples, one start is not a big sample. Shields is going to have .185 WAR a start, but that doesn't mean he will give .185 WAR every start. It is an average. Most starts by Shields are going to be real good. The one he had in the series was not. Statistics also said Lewis usually won't outduel Price, and Harrison usually won't outduel Hellickson, but it happened. The unlikely happened. If the same pitching match-ups happen 5 or so times, the Rays will win (at least those match-ups) more often than they won't. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two clubs is that the Rangers have the resources to sign already studs like Adrian Beltre, while the Rays do not. Beltre had 3 homers in game 4 and played solid defense the whole series. He was probably the MVP for the Rangers' (perhaps Napoli), while Desmond Jennings was probably the MVP for the Rays. Adrian Beltre is making $14 million this year, while Jennings is making league minimum.

So far in the 2011 playoffs:

Initial picks: 1-0

Statistics picks: 0-1

Record of team with bigger salary: 1-0