Does Francisco Rodriguez Have Trade Value?

According to recent trade rumors, the Brewers have been shopping Francisco Rodriguez and several teams are interested him. After his 2012 struggles, off the field issues, and the fact that he had to sign a MiLB contract, him having any real value is somewhat surprising. However, he has been good statistically this year, with a 69 FIP - and a 27.3 K% in 19.2 innings (20 outings).

I'll look at Rodriguez' 2013 so far, comparing it to his 2012 struggles, along with his successful 2011 season, and his 2008 season with the Angels for further reference, a season, which by fWAR, he hasn't repeated since, in order to see if Rodriguez' good start is just a small sample size, or whether the data suggests that he has returned to form and become a valuable trade chip.

First, to get a look whether or not he has "changed" as a pitcher, here are Francisco Rodriguez' release points by season.

So far this year, Rodriguez is releasing the ball higher than he ever has before. In 2008, he was releasing the ball further out than he is now, actually moving closer to the center of the rubber as he declined. While release point consistency proved to be overrated in testing, and it is nearly impossible to look at release point consistency over a full season due to the difference in how it is measured from ballpark to ballpark, we can compare Rodriguez' 2012 and 2013 and see if he is being more consistent or less consistent

There are less pitches this year obviously, but it seems hard to see any difference in consistency. What about how he is locating pitches?

While he is throwing less glove side than last year, he is still throwing glove side on average, something he didn't do in his successful years of 2011 and 2008. So which pitches are drifting more glove side for him? He is basically a 3 pitch pitcher (4 if you split his fastballs, which I don't for the post), so we will start with fastballs

The fastball was more glove side in 2012, and he has moved it closer to arm side on average in 2013 (but still not where it was in 2008 and 2011). His fastball velocity is a little weird, as he was throwing his hardest in 2008, but the 2nd hardest in 2012. His fastball velocity has regressed back to closer where it was in 2011, a successful season for him. Why he had success with it in 2011 despite the velocity must be from location, but the struggles in 2012 despite the good velocity and the success in 2013 despite the bad velocity, if you trust the MLBAM tags, could be the usage of the 2-seam fastball. In 2012, he threw a lot of 2-seamers, and it was a really unsuccessful pitch. So far in 2013, MLBAM tags have him no longer throwing this pitch. 2-seamers usually don't move glove side, so I don't know if that explains the location difference or not.

 

There is no real velocity difference from year to year, and other than his 2011 blip, he has located it glove side on average. So we don't really get any conclusive results here, so what about his changeup?

Just like the fastball, this is another pitch that has drifted glove side after originally being an arm side pitch. Just like the fastball, he is getting it more arm side this year. The velocity drop on the change has been more dramatic than the curveball, really mimicking the fastball.

By throwing less glove side this season, I do think there is some validity to Rodriguez' fast start. I do think he has some value out of the bullpen, but I don't think there is any reason to believe that he is 2008 Rodriguez, or even 2011 Rodriguez.

 

Travis Webb Signs with Brewers: Scouting Report

Travis Webb signed a MiLB contract with an invite to Major League Spring Training with the Brewers. Webb is 28 years old and was originally drafted in the 8th round by the Reds in 2006 out of Washington State. He spent the entire year in AAA Louisville in 2012, appearing in 53 games as a reliever and one as a starter. Up until 2011, he was basically only a starter but has shifted to the bullpen. In 2012, he had a big strikeout rate (26.1 %), but also a big walk rate (13.2%) and 1.09 HR/9IP. He didn't have a good ground-ball rate and had a 13.0% HR/OFB. Despite pitching in a park that played slightly hitter friendly (after being pretty pitcher friendly in 2011), he was much worse on the road.

A big lefty (listed at 6-4 205), Webb has a high leg kick then sort of a hitch in the middle of his delivery.

When I went back to watch when he pitched against the Phillies' AAA (whose broadcast has a radar gun), here were the two pitches I saw:
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86 MPH fastball with some movement and cut. Gets up to 89 MPH.

73-77 MPH change. Not a great pitch in movement but isn't bad when he controls it and keeps it low.

Even though he pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, Brooks Baseball just has data from two spring training outings in 2012. According to that data, his fastball was much better, averaging 90.60 MPH (and all labelled 4-seamers). His changeup averaged 78.8 MPH, but he actually threw more sliders than changeups. That pitch averaged 80.50 MPH and the few curveballs he mixed in averaged 73.38 MPH.

The stuff is not very interesting obviously, but Webb has done a great job of neutralizing lefties over the last two seasons (2.72 FIP, .18 HR/9IP, 3.28 SIERA). His unique arm angle gives him the ability to get lefties out, but exposes him to right-handers:

  
Overall as a pitching staff, the Brewers were pretty solid against lefties (10th best in the Majors, but overall as a bullpen the Brewers were 25th in fWAR. They will have some addition by subtraction (thanks to K-Rod leaving), but it is obviously a 'pen that needs some help. Webb will most likely get a look as a LOOGY, which he has the potential to be, but I can't see him being able to get righties out.

Brewers Sign Michael Olmsted: Scouting Report

The Brewers have signed Michael Olmsted to their 40 man roster. Olmsted is a 25 year old RHP that was originally drafted in the 9th round by the Mets in 2007. Olmsted is a really big guy at 6-7 280.

He had to pitch in the Japanese Minor Leagues and in Independent ball before resurfacing with the Red Sox organization after some arm problems cost him a full year. He was old for the leagues he was pitching in (starting in the GCL in 2011 to getting to AA before the end of the season), so looking at the statistics would be somewhat misleading. With that said, he was downright dominant everywhere, finishing with 19 scoreless innings in AA where he struck out 36.8 % of the batters he faced.

When you watched video of him, you notice just how much of a monster he is size wise. He is a big and imposing force on the mound. His arm action is slightly strange, but he takes advantage of his size by bringing his arm behind him before coming what you would have to call a 3/4s delivery.

Olmsted has a low 90s fastball doesn't look overpowering, but the arm angle cannot be easy for RHB to see and he seems to have pretty good control over it. He seems to like to pitch inside to righties, not letting them get them arms extended on fastballs. Against lefties, he seems to like to either try to jam the hitter with the fastball, or locate it low, almost like a sinker. It is not a straight pitch, with a little bit of tail. His off-speed pitches include a slider that is in the lower 80s and a slow curveball that I didn't get a look at that is evidently in the low 70s. 

So Olmsted is a 3 pitch reliever, but the arm problems probably guarantee him staying in the bullpen. He didn't have much platoon splits in the minors, but again, I don't think the numbers there are really helpful since he was old for the levels. The arm angle may cause him to have platoon splits, but they shouldn't be dramatic since he seems to locate well and has 3 different pitches he can go to. You would probably be more confident in this if he had a changeup or a clear cutter.

Since the Brewers bullpen was so bad last year (and they are "losing" Jose Veras and K-Rod), Olmsted should get quite a look in spring training, and I would be a little surprised if he doesn't make the 25 man roster. If he doesn't, he should at least get his first shot in AAA and make an appearance with the club pretty early on in the season barring another injury.

Free Agent Watch: K-Rod

Francisco Rodriquez registered a 2.4 WAR in 2011, which is worth 7.2 million according to Halladay Standard. Bullpen pitchers have proved to be pretty expendable and vastly overpaid, as the Rays proved this year. 1.57 WAR average over the past 3 years. Worth about 4.7 million. In 2011 he had a PE of -3.58. In his career he has a -5.54. In 2011, he had a very nice TR of 13.11, as his career TR is 11.89. So in 2011, with the Brewers and Mets, he was more efficient, even though his results weren't quite as good. This would probably be good for his prospective teams, and if it were a different name, it might create a market inefficiency and K-Rod could worth more than he is paid. However, he is a big name pitcher, and has Scott Boras as an agent, meaning that won't happen. He actually had an extremely high BABIP in 2011 (.321) compared to his career (.275). It is tempting to argue that he was unlucky in 2011, but that is not what FIP suggests, as his ERA and FIP are almost identical. The big thing, and that is why the PE isn't as low as it usually is for Rodriguez, is that he struck out less batters. Striking out more than a hitter an inning is nothing to sneeze at, but it is not as good as his career K/9IP of over 11. He did give up slightly less home runs, and home runs do not show up on BABIP. This could explain the difference in BABIP. In the end, he will be a highly paid, controversial reliever. He has had off the field issues and "team" issues, and it is difficult to calculate what they means or affects their worth. For example, the one mistake the Tampa Bay Rays made previous to the 2011 season was sign Manny Ramirez. That proved to be a disaster and a waste of money. Their are a few other examples you can think of as well, such as the Cubs giving all that money to Carlos Zambrano. I wouldn't take the bait on K-Rod, but it has more to do with relievers being overvalued that the off the field issues.