Scouting Report on Cheslor Cuthbert

Cheslor Cuthbert was originally signed out of Nicaragua by the Kansas City Royals. Xander Bogaerts was the only other teenager to play a qualified amount of games in the Carolina League (A +) in 2012.

He looks a little big (stocky), slow, and awkward at 3rd base.I have seen questions about whether he will stick at 3rd base or not, and I can see why. He doesn't seem to move well, as stated, and his hands (something I don't really talk about that often) seem to "not be soft". The ball seems to clank off his glove and hands a lot. Whether this is just general clumsiness that comes with being young and continuing to learn or a "natural ability" remains to be seen (I at least lean with the former. That doesn't mean he will learn, it just means I think he can with practice).

There are 7 MLB 3rd baseman that had enough qualified innings and a positive UZR (which at least gives us a ballpark estimate of whether they are good or not defensively) in 2012. Their heights are as follows: 6-0, 6-0, 5-11, 6-1, 5-9, 6-0, 6-2. Listed anywhere between 5-11 to 6-1, Cuthbert certainly falls under that umbrella. He is listed at 190 pounds, which would be smaller than any of the 7 (215, 210, 220, 205,200, 215, 200). The listed weight is most likely conservative, but it doesn't seem that he is necessarily too big to play 3rd. The question is whether or not he will continue to get bigger.

At the plate, he has a fake strike where he brings his leg and foot up (but not out, so no stride) only to put it down before the ball gets there and starts his swing. This is usually not a positive, but the swing and bat control both seem to be solid. He can go get low pitches and seems to have the ability to handle high pitches. Probably more of a line drive guy right now, but you could see Culbert develop a little bit of power, and there does seem to be a slight (not big) uppercut in his swing. Breaking balls seem to get him out of his element and his swing, or at least from what I have seen.

Culbert is not very fast when it comes to foot speed, which seems to match what I saw out in the field. He runs about a 4.45 (I got 4.47 and 4.48 on 2 separate tries of the same "dig") to first base. The average Speed Score of the 3rd Baseman above was 3.9, so there may be some complaints that he isn't athletic enough to play third, which certainly looks to be the case, but Adrian Beltre and Alberto Callaspo actually have slightly worse Speed Scores.

I think he was usually rated above Adalberto Mondesi, but I would probably rank Mondesi higher (even though he is further away from the big leagues). This picture may give you a look as to why (other than just the general athleticism and more rounded game Mondesi has):

Adalberto Mondesi: League Average Age: 20.8. Age: 16.92 (3.88 years younger). Speed Score: 7.2 (4.10 to first). Hitting: 95 wOBA +, 90 OPS +, 90 wRC + (.410 BABIP)

Cuthbert: League Average Age: 22.5. Age: 19.58 (2.92 years younger). Speed Score: 2.9.
Hitting: 89 wOBA +, 74 OPS +, 73 wRC + (.276 BABIP)

It seems pretty clear that Mondesi is better (especially once you factor in that Mondesi plays the middle infield while it doesn't seem that Cuthbert sticks at 3rd), the main counter argument being BABIP. I think Mondesi caught a lot of people by surprise by how well he played this year (reports from the off-season suggested he was still pretty raw), and my guess would be that in this year's rankings he will be consistently higher than Cuthbert (obviously my comparison is in full hindsight and in no way a critique of anyone's prospect ratings).

Matthew Minton of "Seedlings to Stars" wrote in the middle of the season as Cuthbert was really scuffling at the plate:

"I think a good rule of thumb here with Cuthbert is that if you liked him after the 2011 season, there’s really no less reason to like him now."

And I agree. He was basically too young for the league he was playing in and his K/BB still wasn't bad (it wasn't as good as Bogaerts, but it was better than Odubel Herrera's and Trayce Thompson's), suggesting he wasn't totally overwhelmed. There are some things he needs to clean up in his approach and swing, but he looks like a guy who could be a good big league hitter. His future may be in the corner outfield, but there is a chance that he could hit enough to make up for it. Expect him to repeat A +, but I would expect him to have more success and be closer to league average (if not league average) in 2013.

The Rangers, Cliff Lee, Beltre, and Napoli

Around the World Series, I heard a member of the Dallas media say that the Rangers used the money they would have spent on Cliff Lee and spent it on Beltre and Napoli and that is why they were in the World Series. So I wanted to look at the numbers.

They lost: 
Cliff Lee: 6.8 WAR 11 million dollars (will make 21.5 million in 2012)
Frank Francisco: 1.1 WAR 4 million dollars.

They gained:
Mike Napoli: 5.5 WAR 5.8 million dollars
Adrian Beltre: 5.2 WAR 14 million dollars.

The Rangers lost 7.9 WAR (at 15 million dollars), but gained 10.7 WAR (19.8 million dollars). So by signing Beltre instead of Lee and trading Francisco for Napoli (the most lopsided trade of the year), they gained 2.8 WAR at 4.8 extra million dollars, a 1714 WASP, meaning they got good return for the extra money they had to spend. Cliff Lee and Frank Francisco put up a 1898 WASP, while Beltre and Napoli put up a 1850 WASP, meaning the Rangers gained a slight efficiency with these moves.

In this article, I wanted to see if the Angels had any reason whatsoever to trade Mike Napoli. His 2011 .414 OBP, and 1.046 OPS were clearly career highs, and it is hard to imagine anyone would have predicted this. But how was he as an Angel? A .346 OBP, .831 OPS, and 2.14 WAR average in his 5 years in LA is nothing to sneeze about. In fact, every single one of those numbers are better than Vernon Wells numbers in Toronto. Just a straight up trade would have been a loss, and the Angels also sent Juan Rivera to Toronto. I know a big reason for the trade was Napoli's defense, but Vernon Wells also has a career negative D-WAR. Every year in LA, Napoli had an offensive winning percentage of over 50%, and he had a 2.61 PAPP. You just don't find catchers like that. He also had a really impressive 102.73 PPS.

As far as Adrian Beltre goes, he is a hard one to figure out. He has been a notorious contract year player, which made his 2011 season that much more surprising. In 2004 with the Dodgers, he put together one of the alltime great seasons, posting a 10.1 WAR. The next year, his first year in Seattle, he posted just a 1.9 WAR. He then followed up his last year in Seattle with a 1.1 WAR, then had a 6.1 WAR with the Red Sox the next year. One thing you notice about Beltre, a mediocre OBP at .329 on his career. A lack of patience becomes apparent, only walking 6.8% of the time, and seeing a league average 3.76 pitches per plate appearance (leads to about a league average 89.95). When this happens, BABIP and power becomes even more important.  In 2004, he had a 1.79 PPG, in 2005 it was 1.14 PPG. In 2009 he had a 1.07 PPG, but in 2010 was 1.4. You wouldn't think power would fluctuate that much, but in 2004 he hit a homer 7.3% of the time, but in 09 it was just 1.7% and for his career it is 3.9%. We saw this when we looked at Vernon Wells in a previous post, impatient hitters tend to be inconsistent, and I think that is what we see with Beltre.

Series Recap: Rangers versus Rays

With their 4-3 win today at the Trop, the Rangers beat the Rays in the ALDS for the second straight year (this year in 3 games to 1, last year was 3 games to 2). I had picked the Rangers to win the AL Pennant at the start of playoff previews, but end up selecting the Rays to win the series after seeing the statistics (the Rangers had a better lineup and bullpen, while the Rays had better starters and fielding). I had predicted that this would be a close series, and even though it didn't go 5 games, it was a close series. The Rays weaker bullpen certainly hurt them, especially in games 2 and 3. It should be that statistics provide percentages. It was unlikely that James Shields would have very little command in his start, but it happened. Statistics are best with big samples, one start is not a big sample. Shields is going to have .185 WAR a start, but that doesn't mean he will give .185 WAR every start. It is an average. Most starts by Shields are going to be real good. The one he had in the series was not. Statistics also said Lewis usually won't outduel Price, and Harrison usually won't outduel Hellickson, but it happened. The unlikely happened. If the same pitching match-ups happen 5 or so times, the Rays will win (at least those match-ups) more often than they won't. Perhaps the biggest difference between the two clubs is that the Rangers have the resources to sign already studs like Adrian Beltre, while the Rays do not. Beltre had 3 homers in game 4 and played solid defense the whole series. He was probably the MVP for the Rangers' (perhaps Napoli), while Desmond Jennings was probably the MVP for the Rays. Adrian Beltre is making $14 million this year, while Jennings is making league minimum.

So far in the 2011 playoffs:

Initial picks: 1-0

Statistics picks: 0-1

Record of team with bigger salary: 1-0