With Andres Torres signing with the Giants (for just 2 million dollars after being non-tendered), Kirk Nieuwenhuis playing basically like a replacement player in his first big league season, and AAA CF Matt Den Dekker posting a 75 OPS +, 86 wOBA + in 2012, center field is clearly a need for the Mets in 2012.
One has to look no further than the Mets' minor league depth in the upper levels at both CF and SS to see what the problems the organization is currently facing.
After Den Dekker, Juan Lagares is the next highest level centerfielder (at least, that could be called a prospect) that the Mets have. Lagares was signed out of the Dominican Republic and began in the organization in 2006. In 2007, he came stateside. In 2012, he spent the whole year in AA as a 23 year old and had a 101 OPS + and wOBA +. He was considerably better at home, even though the Mets' AA park had a 95 Park Factor for 2012 (102 Park Factor in 2011). When he was brought up to AA in 2011, and his 170 plate apperances were extremely BABIP driven. His BABIP in 2012 was a more reasonable .342, but still .035 higher than league average. This is especially strange considering his ground-ball percentage hovered around 50%. He didn't hit for much power (.107 ISO), but he did have a career high walk rate of 6.8%. Walks have always been his weakness statistically, as he has hovered around 1-4 % for a lot of his career, absolutely unacceptable. Predictably, the right-handed hitter is better against lefties, but he has been decent against righties and actually has a better walk rate against righties over the past two seasons.
Lagares stands slightly open at the plate, with a pretty noisy bat raised up high (about where you would teach a kid where to keep it). His actual swing is a little messy, as his hips work in a way that make him look like a slap hitter. It seems that he takes a large lunge before he swings, which most likely helps create this unbalance. He does have somewhat of an uppercut swing, which is probably why he occasionally hits for some power. However, it creates a lot of moving parts, which would seem to make his plate discipline wane and contact harder. Despite the low walk rates (and the mediocre at best K/BB that creates), his strikeout rates have been mostly reasonable. It is something to watch though.
Lagares played mostly center in 2012, but also 47 games in right-field as well in 2012. He was previously a shortstop, and batted ball data said he was good there as well (he made a lot of errors though, which may be why there was a positional change).Matt Den Dekker was ranked as the best defensive outfielder in the system by Baseball America on Friday. Den Dekker has only had negative FRAAs, and (while Lagares' sample size is only about half as much in center as Den Dekker) Lagares' Range Factor is much better. While the sample size is somewhat noisy obviously, Lagares would have been the top centerfielder in baseball according to Range Factor. Obviously Range Factor is crude and simple, but he has shown good speed on the bases, with 21 steals in 2012 and 25 steals in 2010 (6.3 speed score in 2012). I got him at 4.27-4.28, which is averagish for a right-handed hitter, but the video I saw of him may not have been him running all out.
There has been some concern that he fits better on a corner, which nearly destroys his value. It all depends on whether you trust what the scouts are evidently doing or the data. Whether the improved (but still not good) walk rate in AA was real has a lot to do with how I view Lageres' future Major League value. At age 23 in a league where the average hitter was 24.5, there is reason for optimism.
The Mets have been linked to the Blue Jays in R.A. Dickey rumors, and it appears that Anthony Gose might be in a possible package for him. I have never been a Gose fan, but he would provide more value in 2012 than I could see Lagares providing. He could provide future value, but the most likely scenario is obviously a 4th or 5th outfielder. If everything comes together though, he could be a starting centerfielder with in the next couple of years.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Padres Acquite Chris Rearick from the Rays: Scouting Report
The Rays traded Chris Rearick to the San Diego Padres for Vince Belnome. Rearick was a 41st round pick by the Rays in 2010, and has functioned as a pitch-ability lefty out of the bullpen, with good control ratings (and walk rates) and low home run rates.
At 6-3 190, it is not that the 25 year old is too small to be a starter, but it is hard to imagine that after being in the bullpen since being drafted (one start in 2010) that he will become a starter.
Since he pitched in the Arizona Fall League, we have some Pitch F/X data from one of his outings thanks to GameDay (Brooks Baseball didn't have a profile or data on him from what I could see):
His fastball bottoms out at 87 MPH (once in 2.1 innings of work), and he sits (or more accurately, sat) 88 MPH-89 MPH. He also hit 90 MPH twice.
The changeup he throws doesn't provide much speed differential at 87 MPH, and I believe he only threw it once (the movement was different enough that I don't think it was the fastball). That most compared to Colby Shreve's change in Arizona Fall League Pitch F/X data. Shreve, a prospect with the Phillies, is considered to have a good change according to reports.
The main breaking pitch he used was a 80-82 MPH slider. It is close to Phil Hughes and Justin Marks in movement. Marks' slider has been described as a "wipeout slider" and as a "good pitch". Phil Hughes' doesn't throw his slider much at all (2.3% for his career, didn't throw it at all from 2009-2011 according to FanGraphs), but it does have a positive run value and opponents have just a 59 wRC + on it (but classification problems abound, especially with the velocity difference). According to GameDay, he threw one 80 MPH cutter with similar break to his slider. I'm guessing it is his slider.
In 2012, Rearick split the season between A + (45.1 innings) and AA (24.2 innings). He was about a year and a half older than league average, but at least he was dominant (1.46 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). He found AA less friendly, especially when it came to home runs (3.22 SIERA but 4.29 FIP). Obviously everything is small sample size, but the Rays' AA home park did play hitter friendly (but he also gave up more homers on the road). I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers, though I find his lack of large platoon splits interesting. His strikeout and walk rates are still solid against righties (and are really excellent against lefties), the big difference lies in his ground-ball rate. This does lead me to believe he would have bigger splits in the upper minors/majors (if he ever makes it there).
Since there aren't any videos of Rearick (that I could find) readily avaliable, I went back and took some video off of MiLB.TV (on the Pensacola Blue Wahoos broadcast. Billy Hamilton is on first when the video starts):
He has also been known to throw a 70 MPH curveball (though that may be outdated). As the prominent Rays blog DRaysBay notes "Scouting information for Rearick is difficult if not impossible to come by". He is long and lanky, and delivers the ball from a prominent 3/4ths arm angle.
The delivery doesn't look like one of a LOOGY or left-handed specialist, but instead of one like a starter. I don't think he is limited to just being a left-handed specialist because of the arm angle, though you would like for him to face more lefties than righties because of the ground-ball trends we noted above. The simple delivery could allow him to eat up innings in more of a low leverage swing man role, and the good command (at least from the numbers available) would help in this. If I were the Padres, I would be aggressive in assignment (of course a lot will depend on how spring training shakes out) and assign him to AAA Tucson to compete against players that are closer to his age. In AA, he will be a little old, and with the pitcher friendly San Antonio park, the numbers won't be trustworthy. Whether he is able to keep the ball in the park against more advanced veteran hitters in the PCL's hitter friendly parks will determine to me whether or not this pitchability lefty has any future value in a MLB bullpen.
At 6-3 190, it is not that the 25 year old is too small to be a starter, but it is hard to imagine that after being in the bullpen since being drafted (one start in 2010) that he will become a starter.
Since he pitched in the Arizona Fall League, we have some Pitch F/X data from one of his outings thanks to GameDay (Brooks Baseball didn't have a profile or data on him from what I could see):
His fastball bottoms out at 87 MPH (once in 2.1 innings of work), and he sits (or more accurately, sat) 88 MPH-89 MPH. He also hit 90 MPH twice.
The changeup he throws doesn't provide much speed differential at 87 MPH, and I believe he only threw it once (the movement was different enough that I don't think it was the fastball). That most compared to Colby Shreve's change in Arizona Fall League Pitch F/X data. Shreve, a prospect with the Phillies, is considered to have a good change according to reports.
The main breaking pitch he used was a 80-82 MPH slider. It is close to Phil Hughes and Justin Marks in movement. Marks' slider has been described as a "wipeout slider" and as a "good pitch". Phil Hughes' doesn't throw his slider much at all (2.3% for his career, didn't throw it at all from 2009-2011 according to FanGraphs), but it does have a positive run value and opponents have just a 59 wRC + on it (but classification problems abound, especially with the velocity difference). According to GameDay, he threw one 80 MPH cutter with similar break to his slider. I'm guessing it is his slider.
In 2012, Rearick split the season between A + (45.1 innings) and AA (24.2 innings). He was about a year and a half older than league average, but at least he was dominant (1.46 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). He found AA less friendly, especially when it came to home runs (3.22 SIERA but 4.29 FIP). Obviously everything is small sample size, but the Rays' AA home park did play hitter friendly (but he also gave up more homers on the road). I wouldn't put much stock in those numbers, though I find his lack of large platoon splits interesting. His strikeout and walk rates are still solid against righties (and are really excellent against lefties), the big difference lies in his ground-ball rate. This does lead me to believe he would have bigger splits in the upper minors/majors (if he ever makes it there).
Since there aren't any videos of Rearick (that I could find) readily avaliable, I went back and took some video off of MiLB.TV (on the Pensacola Blue Wahoos broadcast. Billy Hamilton is on first when the video starts):
He has also been known to throw a 70 MPH curveball (though that may be outdated). As the prominent Rays blog DRaysBay notes "Scouting information for Rearick is difficult if not impossible to come by". He is long and lanky, and delivers the ball from a prominent 3/4ths arm angle.
The delivery doesn't look like one of a LOOGY or left-handed specialist, but instead of one like a starter. I don't think he is limited to just being a left-handed specialist because of the arm angle, though you would like for him to face more lefties than righties because of the ground-ball trends we noted above. The simple delivery could allow him to eat up innings in more of a low leverage swing man role, and the good command (at least from the numbers available) would help in this. If I were the Padres, I would be aggressive in assignment (of course a lot will depend on how spring training shakes out) and assign him to AAA Tucson to compete against players that are closer to his age. In AA, he will be a little old, and with the pitcher friendly San Antonio park, the numbers won't be trustworthy. Whether he is able to keep the ball in the park against more advanced veteran hitters in the PCL's hitter friendly parks will determine to me whether or not this pitchability lefty has any future value in a MLB bullpen.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Jang or Knight? My take on the Golden Glove Controversy
In the KBO, Jang Won-Sam was awarded a "Golden Glove" over Brandon Knight.
Golden Gloves have nothing to do with defense in the KBO, it is more like the NPB's "best nine" or like an All-Pro team. This caused some controversy on the English speaking versions of the internet, with accusations of anything between an over reliance on pitcher wins to borderline racism. I find it hard to care about awards and the hall of fame when it comes to the Majors. I have mostly stayed out of that realm of baseball writing because I find prospects and play evaluations more interesting. However, Dan (of mykbo.net) somewhat suggested this idea and it sounded fun.
Knight had a 2.20 ERA in 208.2 innings in 2012, which is good for a stunning 3.67 ERA WAA and 10.62 ERA WAR (according to the metric I set up). Jang Won-Sam had an ERA of 3.55 in just 157 innings, good for just a .4 eWAA and 2.6 eWAR. Of course, ERA is not the best way to evaluate pitchers, and that is why I put more weight into FIP WAR:
Jang Won-Sam: 1.9 FIP WAA, 3.47 FIP WAR
Brandon Knight: .98 FIP WAA, 3.9 FIP WAR
Knight regresses to the mean in a hurry when DIPs is introduced, and FIP insists that Jang Won-sam is a better pitcher, but Knight just threw more innings (thus the higher WAR). So which is more valuable? While I usually prefer WAA when comparing everyday players or pitchers (the replacement level to me seems to me to be best when comparing marginal players such as utility players or bullpen pitchers, though leverage problems develop in the latter), there is something to be said for throwing more innings, especially when it is nearly 50 innings of difference. To use a perhaps flawed American example, Joe Blanton and Brandon McCarthy received basically the same contract this off-season. Even with home/road splits concerns, McCarthy is clearly the better pitcher. Blanton is a below average starter while McCarthy is an above average starter. However, Blanton has been healthy basically his whole career, while McCarthy has had major injury issues, especially with his shoulder. While free agent contract money does not necessarily equal true worth (sometimes teams are just wrong), it does give us a window into the two front offices and how the pitchers are basically viewed as the same. The Angels took a safer bet with Blanton while the Diamondbacks took the riskier player with the higher ceiling in McCarthy. So even though FIP says Jang Won-sam is a better pitcher than Knight, Knight's durability perhaps makes him more valuable.
One could argue that we shouldn't use things like FIP and BABIP when looking at leagues like the NPB and KBO (along with independent leagues, college baseball, and lower minor league levels) because the diverse pools of talent do not exactly create a controlled environment (or at least not as much as we are able to break down environments in the MLB). I somewhat disagree with this, as I think that dominance would show up at least as much in K/BB/HR as it would in BABIP. In other words, when I see a low BABIP in other levels, I am most likely to only conclude that it is just dominance or some kind of BABIP control if the pitcher also has dominant K/BB/HR (that is, if a pitcher keeps putting up 1.50 ERAs while his FIPs come out to be in the 2.00s, one could easily say that he is closer to the 1.50 ERA in true talent in that league). The other exception (and there are many in DIPs) would be if a pitcher had shown a track record of low BABIPs. Knight only got 31.1 innings in the Majors, but his BABIP was a high .353. In his last shot in AAA (89 innings), his BABIP was .347. So it is certainly not a skill set he had shown before going to Korea. Even in the KBO, he hasn't shown this before 2012, as his ERAs were well over 4 in both 2010 and 2011. Knight's ground-ball rate (at least GO/FO, which does lend itself to some variance as perhaps a pitcher has more ground-balls turned into outs than another one for a reason he doesn't controlled) is much better than Jang's, but it is hard to get over the fact that he struck out less than a batter every two innings and has less than 2 strikeouts per walk. One could argue that you shouldn't base awards off of advanced metrics like FIP, but since this article is more interested in which pitcher is/was better, it doesn't matter for our purposes.
I am doubting the KBO used any kind of advanced metrics when awarding the gold gloves, so we will look at the two pitchers from a scouting perspective.
The first thing I look at when scouting pitchers is obviously fastball velocity. According to KBO Data's scouting reports, Knight's fastball averages between 86.18 MPH to 93.62 MPH. Jang's is a little slower, sitting between 84.94 MPH to 90.52 MPH. Of course, Knight is right-handed, while Jang is left-handed. You usually expect slightly lower velocity from left-handers, but the 3 MPH difference is pretty big. Jang has the slower curve and goes to his changeup more often. Surprisingly, Jang's slider is a little harder than Knight's. Here is some video of Jang pitching against Ryu Hyun-Jin a couple of years ago.
To me, it looks like he does a pretty good job of cutting his fastball and showing good command of his slider. On the other hand, Knight (video below) seems to have some very good movement on all of his pitches:
For a ground-ball guy, Knight doesn't seem to keep the ball especially low, at least according to his heat map:
Jang clearly pitches more up in the zone, which makes more sense considering his higher strikeout rate and lower ground-ball rate:
I think you can make a legitimate argument that Jang is the better pitcher and perhaps even had a better year. Especially if you just look at strikeouts and walks. Jang had more strikeouts and less walks than Knight did, which is simply, but perhaps predictive.
Golden Gloves have nothing to do with defense in the KBO, it is more like the NPB's "best nine" or like an All-Pro team. This caused some controversy on the English speaking versions of the internet, with accusations of anything between an over reliance on pitcher wins to borderline racism. I find it hard to care about awards and the hall of fame when it comes to the Majors. I have mostly stayed out of that realm of baseball writing because I find prospects and play evaluations more interesting. However, Dan (of mykbo.net) somewhat suggested this idea and it sounded fun.
Knight had a 2.20 ERA in 208.2 innings in 2012, which is good for a stunning 3.67 ERA WAA and 10.62 ERA WAR (according to the metric I set up). Jang Won-Sam had an ERA of 3.55 in just 157 innings, good for just a .4 eWAA and 2.6 eWAR. Of course, ERA is not the best way to evaluate pitchers, and that is why I put more weight into FIP WAR:
Jang Won-Sam: 1.9 FIP WAA, 3.47 FIP WAR
Brandon Knight: .98 FIP WAA, 3.9 FIP WAR
Knight regresses to the mean in a hurry when DIPs is introduced, and FIP insists that Jang Won-sam is a better pitcher, but Knight just threw more innings (thus the higher WAR). So which is more valuable? While I usually prefer WAA when comparing everyday players or pitchers (the replacement level to me seems to me to be best when comparing marginal players such as utility players or bullpen pitchers, though leverage problems develop in the latter), there is something to be said for throwing more innings, especially when it is nearly 50 innings of difference. To use a perhaps flawed American example, Joe Blanton and Brandon McCarthy received basically the same contract this off-season. Even with home/road splits concerns, McCarthy is clearly the better pitcher. Blanton is a below average starter while McCarthy is an above average starter. However, Blanton has been healthy basically his whole career, while McCarthy has had major injury issues, especially with his shoulder. While free agent contract money does not necessarily equal true worth (sometimes teams are just wrong), it does give us a window into the two front offices and how the pitchers are basically viewed as the same. The Angels took a safer bet with Blanton while the Diamondbacks took the riskier player with the higher ceiling in McCarthy. So even though FIP says Jang Won-sam is a better pitcher than Knight, Knight's durability perhaps makes him more valuable.
One could argue that we shouldn't use things like FIP and BABIP when looking at leagues like the NPB and KBO (along with independent leagues, college baseball, and lower minor league levels) because the diverse pools of talent do not exactly create a controlled environment (or at least not as much as we are able to break down environments in the MLB). I somewhat disagree with this, as I think that dominance would show up at least as much in K/BB/HR as it would in BABIP. In other words, when I see a low BABIP in other levels, I am most likely to only conclude that it is just dominance or some kind of BABIP control if the pitcher also has dominant K/BB/HR (that is, if a pitcher keeps putting up 1.50 ERAs while his FIPs come out to be in the 2.00s, one could easily say that he is closer to the 1.50 ERA in true talent in that league). The other exception (and there are many in DIPs) would be if a pitcher had shown a track record of low BABIPs. Knight only got 31.1 innings in the Majors, but his BABIP was a high .353. In his last shot in AAA (89 innings), his BABIP was .347. So it is certainly not a skill set he had shown before going to Korea. Even in the KBO, he hasn't shown this before 2012, as his ERAs were well over 4 in both 2010 and 2011. Knight's ground-ball rate (at least GO/FO, which does lend itself to some variance as perhaps a pitcher has more ground-balls turned into outs than another one for a reason he doesn't controlled) is much better than Jang's, but it is hard to get over the fact that he struck out less than a batter every two innings and has less than 2 strikeouts per walk. One could argue that you shouldn't base awards off of advanced metrics like FIP, but since this article is more interested in which pitcher is/was better, it doesn't matter for our purposes.
I am doubting the KBO used any kind of advanced metrics when awarding the gold gloves, so we will look at the two pitchers from a scouting perspective.
The first thing I look at when scouting pitchers is obviously fastball velocity. According to KBO Data's scouting reports, Knight's fastball averages between 86.18 MPH to 93.62 MPH. Jang's is a little slower, sitting between 84.94 MPH to 90.52 MPH. Of course, Knight is right-handed, while Jang is left-handed. You usually expect slightly lower velocity from left-handers, but the 3 MPH difference is pretty big. Jang has the slower curve and goes to his changeup more often. Surprisingly, Jang's slider is a little harder than Knight's. Here is some video of Jang pitching against Ryu Hyun-Jin a couple of years ago.
To me, it looks like he does a pretty good job of cutting his fastball and showing good command of his slider. On the other hand, Knight (video below) seems to have some very good movement on all of his pitches:
For a ground-ball guy, Knight doesn't seem to keep the ball especially low, at least according to his heat map:
I think you can make a legitimate argument that Jang is the better pitcher and perhaps even had a better year. Especially if you just look at strikeouts and walks. Jang had more strikeouts and less walks than Knight did, which is simply, but perhaps predictive.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Tom Boleska: Rule 5 Scouting Report
Tom Boleska was picked up in the minor league Rule 5 draft by the
Orioles from the Twins. The Twins signed him in October after he spent
the season with Fargo-Moorhead
in Independent ball. Boleska was originally drafted in the 35th round
by the Pirates in 2007. The 26 year old right-handed pitcher worked
nearly exclusively out of the bullpen and was mostly very effective.
However, even though he was successful in a small sample size in AA in
2010, 2011 was not so kind. He began the year by walking more batters
than he struck out and was released after 16.2 innings. Boleska would
move on to Edmonton in Independent ball, and threw 47 solid innings. He
lead the team, which had 7 former MLB pitchers on the roster, in K/BB
and didn't give up a homer (team average was .5 HR/9IP).
Boleska would spend all of 2012 with Fargo-Moorhead and lead the team in K/9IP, ERA, and K/BB. He has had some arm issues throughout college and his professional career. This has lead to inconsistent velocity, but he has been mostly at about 90 MPH on his fastball, touching 93 MPH (the low velocity isn't surprising since he was drafted so low). According to some who saw him this year, he was hitting up to 94-95 MPH, which certainly makes him more attractive. Mechanically, he is a little strange with his body, as the motion isn't extremely fluid and there is a little pause. He has a pretty high leg kick and long stride. His off-speed pitch appears to be a change, and it didn't look particularly impressive, but had some bite. However, he moves his fastball around the zone and locates it well, including keeping it low. He has always been a pretty solid ground-ball guy according to GO/AO (which is certainly not my favorite statistic, but if you want to go back a few years, that is pretty much what you have to use).
Here is some video of one of his outings with Fargo-Moorhead this year. It is a full length game, but he begins pitching around 3:21:00.
The increased fastball makes him more interesting, and health will be key as to whether or not he develops into anything more than a pitcher that put up some good numbers in Independent ball and the lower minors. Of course, the minor league rule 5 draft is about as low risk as it gets. MiLB.com has him listed as part of the Orioles AAA team, and if true, at least we will get a visible radar gun on him when he pitches in Durham and Lehigh Valley on MiLB.TV.
Boleska would spend all of 2012 with Fargo-Moorhead and lead the team in K/9IP, ERA, and K/BB. He has had some arm issues throughout college and his professional career. This has lead to inconsistent velocity, but he has been mostly at about 90 MPH on his fastball, touching 93 MPH (the low velocity isn't surprising since he was drafted so low). According to some who saw him this year, he was hitting up to 94-95 MPH, which certainly makes him more attractive. Mechanically, he is a little strange with his body, as the motion isn't extremely fluid and there is a little pause. He has a pretty high leg kick and long stride. His off-speed pitch appears to be a change, and it didn't look particularly impressive, but had some bite. However, he moves his fastball around the zone and locates it well, including keeping it low. He has always been a pretty solid ground-ball guy according to GO/AO (which is certainly not my favorite statistic, but if you want to go back a few years, that is pretty much what you have to use).
Here is some video of one of his outings with Fargo-Moorhead this year. It is a full length game, but he begins pitching around 3:21:00.
The increased fastball makes him more interesting, and health will be key as to whether or not he develops into anything more than a pitcher that put up some good numbers in Independent ball and the lower minors. Of course, the minor league rule 5 draft is about as low risk as it gets. MiLB.com has him listed as part of the Orioles AAA team, and if true, at least we will get a visible radar gun on him when he pitches in Durham and Lehigh Valley on MiLB.TV.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Patrick Leonard Scouting Report
The Rays and the Royals made a blockbuster trade on Sunday night. The Rays gave up Wade Davis, James Shields, and a Player to Be Named Later (or cash) for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard. Since he is the least known guy in the trade, and I haven't written anything about him, I decided to write a report on Patrick Leonard. According to J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, he was a prospect "on the rise" (and BA had him as the 18th best player in a good system).
Leonard was a 5th round pick by the Royals in 2011 out of high school in Houston Texas. The 20 year old 3rd baseman (also DH'ed 7 times this year) is a monster of a man, listed at 6-4 225. He made his minor league debut in 2012, playing 62 games of Rookie Ball in the Appalachian League with Burlington. He showed off some skills with the bat there, with a 113 wOBA + and 133 OPS + despite being a touch young for the league. Burlingon's park also played slightly pitcher friendly (but it played slightly hitter friendly in 2011, so you can probably chalk up this fact to sample size, and consider it roughly an average park) and it showed up in his splits as well, as he had a .207 ISO at home and .277 ISO on the road. Of course, we are dealing with small statistical sample sizes, so splits may not be very helpful. This is why I would not be concerned with his .043 ISO against lefties. It is just 53 plate appearances, he is a right-handed hitter, and his K/BB is better than against righties. He didn't hit for a very good average, but didn't strikeout a high amount for a power hitter, had a low BABIP, and walked, giving him a good OBP. Going with what I have seen of Leonard as far as video, he stands very upright (which has worked for some hitters like Troy Tulowitzki) without much leg splits. He seems to take an early leg stride, but not much of a kick, as it isn't very high at all. The stance goes from open to normal by the time the ball gets there (which is, if nothing else, what the leg kick does). He seems to possess a flat swing, but it does not look especially quick. It is very controlled, calm, fluid, and smooth. I suspect that he is a better low ball hitter than a high ball hitter considering his swing and his speed (though some have raved about his bat speed). According to John Sickels, there was concern about how he would handle breaking pitches. Perhaps it is too early to say that this has been proven wrong, but he performed well with a decent walk rate against his peers, so it isn't a massive problem as of now.
Obviously 55 games is a very small sample size at 3rd base, but range factor said he was a very good fielder. FRAA told the same story. He was a shortstop for most of his pre-draft prospect career, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised he is showing good range. Evidently, there is still some thoughts that he may be moved to right-field, but as of right now, that doesn't make a lot of sense. A move may come later, but since he hasn't played a single full season ball game yet, that discussion is most likely premature. He does have good arm, so he would definitely fit out there if needed. He has always been viewed as an athletic player, and he stole 6 bases and had a 5.9 speed score in 2012, so he should either be a good corner outfielder, or at least as of now provide some baserunning value. Considering the power and power potential, that is pretty valuable.
It is obviously early in Leonard's career, but there is a lot to like about Leonard. He could turn into a good three facet player (with a good bat, glove, and running ability) at a non premium position. Of course many things can happen, including probably the likely scenario of his size eventually cutting down on his speed/defense but improving his power. As far as the trade goes, even though I am the least high on Wil Myers than basically anyone I know (the power in AA and AAA are in hitter friendly leagues, a lot of strikeouts, not much, if any, defensive or baserunning value), giving up Odorizzi and Leonard (along with a flier like Montgomery) is too much. As many have pointed out, Shields has scary home/road splits, and Wade Davis has somewhat struggled as a starter (but has been a great reliever).
Leonard was a 5th round pick by the Royals in 2011 out of high school in Houston Texas. The 20 year old 3rd baseman (also DH'ed 7 times this year) is a monster of a man, listed at 6-4 225. He made his minor league debut in 2012, playing 62 games of Rookie Ball in the Appalachian League with Burlington. He showed off some skills with the bat there, with a 113 wOBA + and 133 OPS + despite being a touch young for the league. Burlingon's park also played slightly pitcher friendly (but it played slightly hitter friendly in 2011, so you can probably chalk up this fact to sample size, and consider it roughly an average park) and it showed up in his splits as well, as he had a .207 ISO at home and .277 ISO on the road. Of course, we are dealing with small statistical sample sizes, so splits may not be very helpful. This is why I would not be concerned with his .043 ISO against lefties. It is just 53 plate appearances, he is a right-handed hitter, and his K/BB is better than against righties. He didn't hit for a very good average, but didn't strikeout a high amount for a power hitter, had a low BABIP, and walked, giving him a good OBP. Going with what I have seen of Leonard as far as video, he stands very upright (which has worked for some hitters like Troy Tulowitzki) without much leg splits. He seems to take an early leg stride, but not much of a kick, as it isn't very high at all. The stance goes from open to normal by the time the ball gets there (which is, if nothing else, what the leg kick does). He seems to possess a flat swing, but it does not look especially quick. It is very controlled, calm, fluid, and smooth. I suspect that he is a better low ball hitter than a high ball hitter considering his swing and his speed (though some have raved about his bat speed). According to John Sickels, there was concern about how he would handle breaking pitches. Perhaps it is too early to say that this has been proven wrong, but he performed well with a decent walk rate against his peers, so it isn't a massive problem as of now.
Obviously 55 games is a very small sample size at 3rd base, but range factor said he was a very good fielder. FRAA told the same story. He was a shortstop for most of his pre-draft prospect career, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised he is showing good range. Evidently, there is still some thoughts that he may be moved to right-field, but as of right now, that doesn't make a lot of sense. A move may come later, but since he hasn't played a single full season ball game yet, that discussion is most likely premature. He does have good arm, so he would definitely fit out there if needed. He has always been viewed as an athletic player, and he stole 6 bases and had a 5.9 speed score in 2012, so he should either be a good corner outfielder, or at least as of now provide some baserunning value. Considering the power and power potential, that is pretty valuable.
It is obviously early in Leonard's career, but there is a lot to like about Leonard. He could turn into a good three facet player (with a good bat, glove, and running ability) at a non premium position. Of course many things can happen, including probably the likely scenario of his size eventually cutting down on his speed/defense but improving his power. As far as the trade goes, even though I am the least high on Wil Myers than basically anyone I know (the power in AA and AAA are in hitter friendly leagues, a lot of strikeouts, not much, if any, defensive or baserunning value), giving up Odorizzi and Leonard (along with a flier like Montgomery) is too much. As many have pointed out, Shields has scary home/road splits, and Wade Davis has somewhat struggled as a starter (but has been a great reliever).
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Brendan Lafferty: Rule 5 Scouting Report
The Phillies took Brendan Lafferty in the AAA part of the Rule 5 draft from the Royals. Lafferty was originally a 47th round pick by the Phillies in 2004, but decided to go to UCLA instead. After 4 years as a mediocre (statistically) reliever, the Royals took him in the 18th round in 2009. He has basically only been a reliever in the minors and the 26 year old pitched the whole year in AA (so he is old for the level).
Lafferty's Pitch F/X data comes from the Arizona Fall League in 2011.
Known for his fastball, it averaged over 94 MPH, along with a lot of sinkers (averaging between 93-94 MPH) and sliders (83.58 MPH average). He also threw a reasonable number of changeups that average just under 80 MPH. When you look at other relievers with similar fastballs, his changeup is much slower than most relievers who throw that hard (which made looking for velocity and pitch comparisons basically impossible). So even though he is not known to have good secondary stuff, he at least throws it a lot. He is somewhat of a sinker/slider guy, but the fastball and change at least gives him some other weapons. Statistically, he doesn't act like a sinker/slider pitcher either. He had a good strikeout rate (25.5 %) with a gigantic walk rate (14.4%) with a mediocre ground-ball rate (and high home run rate) in 2012. He pitched in an extreme hitters park in 2012, but actually gave up more homers on the road.
He also threw strikes under 60% of the time in 2012. 60% is usually considered a magic number that virtually every successful Major League pitcher surpasses (with very few, such as Cliff Lee and Kevin Slowey throwing 70% or near). So, if one is trying to put Lafferty in a category, it is impossible to put him into the sinker/slider category (and is hard to put him in the advanced older pitcher category as well), and instead he falls under the wild/hard throwing lefty.
He has a better K/BB against lefties, along with a better GB %, but his home run rate is higher against righties. This seems to be more of a fluky HR/FB % issue than an actually telling us about his skill set (there are always some issues with reliever splits and sample sizes, even when looking at multiple seasons. Lafferty giving up more homers to lefties doesn't jive a lot with the rest of the information we have).
Lefties that throw hard are always interesting and usually valuable, but the age obviously limits his ceiling. He has the good strikeout rate but Lafferty obviously has a lot of other issues. His delivery is somewhat hard to watch, as he brings his leg up rather high and pauses in the middle of his delivery. His arm slot then seems to not follow his delivery, as he moves his body like he is going to come over the top, only to come what you would probably call 3/4ths. He has good size at 6-3, but it doesn't appear that he is using the size to his advantage and actually looks like he is working against his body while pitching. In much of the video I watched of Lafferty, he was keeping the ball low, but had all kinds of problems with basic command/control. With his velocity and mix of pitches, he shouldn't be giving up homers if he is keeping the ball low. While there is no real way to quantify whether or not he is keeping the ball low (there are technically several ways, but none without flaws such as relying on selection bias, possibly bad stringer data in AA, or just looking at ground-ball rate), it seems safe to assume that a pitcher that throws a sinker at least a quarter of the time but has a 1.34 HR/9IP is not keeping the ball low. I wholly expect that the Phillies are taking a chance on left-handed velocity and will most likely tinker with his delivery in either AA or AAA.
Lafferty's Pitch F/X data comes from the Arizona Fall League in 2011.
Known for his fastball, it averaged over 94 MPH, along with a lot of sinkers (averaging between 93-94 MPH) and sliders (83.58 MPH average). He also threw a reasonable number of changeups that average just under 80 MPH. When you look at other relievers with similar fastballs, his changeup is much slower than most relievers who throw that hard (which made looking for velocity and pitch comparisons basically impossible). So even though he is not known to have good secondary stuff, he at least throws it a lot. He is somewhat of a sinker/slider guy, but the fastball and change at least gives him some other weapons. Statistically, he doesn't act like a sinker/slider pitcher either. He had a good strikeout rate (25.5 %) with a gigantic walk rate (14.4%) with a mediocre ground-ball rate (and high home run rate) in 2012. He pitched in an extreme hitters park in 2012, but actually gave up more homers on the road.
He also threw strikes under 60% of the time in 2012. 60% is usually considered a magic number that virtually every successful Major League pitcher surpasses (with very few, such as Cliff Lee and Kevin Slowey throwing 70% or near). So, if one is trying to put Lafferty in a category, it is impossible to put him into the sinker/slider category (and is hard to put him in the advanced older pitcher category as well), and instead he falls under the wild/hard throwing lefty.
He has a better K/BB against lefties, along with a better GB %, but his home run rate is higher against righties. This seems to be more of a fluky HR/FB % issue than an actually telling us about his skill set (there are always some issues with reliever splits and sample sizes, even when looking at multiple seasons. Lafferty giving up more homers to lefties doesn't jive a lot with the rest of the information we have).
Lefties that throw hard are always interesting and usually valuable, but the age obviously limits his ceiling. He has the good strikeout rate but Lafferty obviously has a lot of other issues. His delivery is somewhat hard to watch, as he brings his leg up rather high and pauses in the middle of his delivery. His arm slot then seems to not follow his delivery, as he moves his body like he is going to come over the top, only to come what you would probably call 3/4ths. He has good size at 6-3, but it doesn't appear that he is using the size to his advantage and actually looks like he is working against his body while pitching. In much of the video I watched of Lafferty, he was keeping the ball low, but had all kinds of problems with basic command/control. With his velocity and mix of pitches, he shouldn't be giving up homers if he is keeping the ball low. While there is no real way to quantify whether or not he is keeping the ball low (there are technically several ways, but none without flaws such as relying on selection bias, possibly bad stringer data in AA, or just looking at ground-ball rate), it seems safe to assume that a pitcher that throws a sinker at least a quarter of the time but has a 1.34 HR/9IP is not keeping the ball low. I wholly expect that the Phillies are taking a chance on left-handed velocity and will most likely tinker with his delivery in either AA or AAA.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Travis Webb Signs with Brewers: Scouting Report
Travis Webb signed a MiLB contract with an invite to Major League Spring Training with the Brewers. Webb is 28 years old and was originally drafted in the 8th round by the Reds in 2006 out of Washington State. He spent the entire year in AAA Louisville in 2012, appearing in 53 games as a reliever and one as a starter. Up until 2011, he was basically only a starter but has shifted to the bullpen. In 2012, he had a big strikeout rate (26.1 %), but also a big walk rate (13.2%) and 1.09 HR/9IP. He didn't have a good ground-ball rate and had a 13.0% HR/OFB. Despite pitching in a park that played slightly hitter friendly (after being pretty pitcher friendly in 2011), he was much worse on the road.
A big lefty (listed at 6-4 205), Webb has a high leg kick then sort of a hitch in the middle of his delivery.
When I went back to watch when he pitched against the Phillies' AAA (whose broadcast has a radar gun), here were the two pitches I saw:
.
86 MPH fastball with some movement and cut. Gets up to 89 MPH.
73-77 MPH change. Not a great pitch in movement but isn't bad when he controls it and keeps it low.
Even though he pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, Brooks Baseball just has data from two spring training outings in 2012. According to that data, his fastball was much better, averaging 90.60 MPH (and all labelled 4-seamers). His changeup averaged 78.8 MPH, but he actually threw more sliders than changeups. That pitch averaged 80.50 MPH and the few curveballs he mixed in averaged 73.38 MPH.
The stuff is not very interesting obviously, but Webb has done a great job of neutralizing lefties over the last two seasons (2.72 FIP, .18 HR/9IP, 3.28 SIERA). His unique arm angle gives him the ability to get lefties out, but exposes him to right-handers:
Overall as a pitching staff, the Brewers were pretty solid against lefties (10th best in the Majors, but overall as a bullpen the Brewers were 25th in fWAR. They will have some addition by subtraction (thanks to K-Rod leaving), but it is obviously a 'pen that needs some help. Webb will most likely get a look as a LOOGY, which he has the potential to be, but I can't see him being able to get righties out.
A big lefty (listed at 6-4 205), Webb has a high leg kick then sort of a hitch in the middle of his delivery.
When I went back to watch when he pitched against the Phillies' AAA (whose broadcast has a radar gun), here were the two pitches I saw:
.
86 MPH fastball with some movement and cut. Gets up to 89 MPH.
73-77 MPH change. Not a great pitch in movement but isn't bad when he controls it and keeps it low.
Even though he pitched in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, Brooks Baseball just has data from two spring training outings in 2012. According to that data, his fastball was much better, averaging 90.60 MPH (and all labelled 4-seamers). His changeup averaged 78.8 MPH, but he actually threw more sliders than changeups. That pitch averaged 80.50 MPH and the few curveballs he mixed in averaged 73.38 MPH.
The stuff is not very interesting obviously, but Webb has done a great job of neutralizing lefties over the last two seasons (2.72 FIP, .18 HR/9IP, 3.28 SIERA). His unique arm angle gives him the ability to get lefties out, but exposes him to right-handers:
Overall as a pitching staff, the Brewers were pretty solid against lefties (10th best in the Majors, but overall as a bullpen the Brewers were 25th in fWAR. They will have some addition by subtraction (thanks to K-Rod leaving), but it is obviously a 'pen that needs some help. Webb will most likely get a look as a LOOGY, which he has the potential to be, but I can't see him being able to get righties out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)