tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post4957246663730917049..comments2023-09-21T08:09:15.963-05:00Comments on I R Fast: NPB Velocity and MLB SuccessAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-18366763245854980802013-02-03T09:28:56.935-06:002013-02-03T09:28:56.935-06:00Was not*Was not*Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-8410488702499037852013-02-03T09:28:35.298-06:002013-02-03T09:28:35.298-06:00Kozo, yes
Since both of those pitchers played bef...Kozo, yes<br /> Since both of those pitchers played before the "pitch Fx era" velocity data was readily available. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-37192030602486919892013-02-03T09:24:49.605-06:002013-02-03T09:24:49.605-06:00I notice your list of NPB > MLB pitchers list i...I notice your list of NPB > MLB pitchers list is missing some people. (Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Shingo Takatsu off the top of my head.) Any reason for their omission?Kozohttp://tokyoswallows.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-14014435703556564372012-12-25T22:28:56.290-06:002012-12-25T22:28:56.290-06:00My data here is not broken into RP and SP splits. ...My data here is not broken into RP and SP splits. As far as I know, it is available, but only through Japanese sites (which isn't a huge problem if you use something like Google Chrome which will give you a translation, not a good one, but a workable one). <br /><br />I've tried my own very simple NPB projections and it has problems: http://irfast.blogspot.com/2012/09/how-our-japanese-projections-did.html<br /><br />The problem is that, and this post is no exception as I simply did not, that when looking at NPB stats, you have to take into account the crazy shift away from offense the league has seen since changing to a new ball after the 2010 season. While K/BB rates are similar, home run rates (and BABIP rates as well I think) have dropped significantly. This makes ERA and FIP compromised (though perhaps a SIERA, K%-BB%, xFIP might help stabilize the statistics). You basically have to ignore what the league did before 2011 if you are going to create a projection for current NPB baseball to the Majors. This could be interpreted as a minor point in my post as well. Use fastball velocity instead of numbers when trying to project players from Japan to the MLB. While the results weren't necessarily great here, (if you click on the Velocity Data tag you can see all the posts) we see that numbers from the minors to the majors, Ni-gun to the NPB, and from KBO to MLB do not translate as well as just fastball velocity does. That is the point. Numbers can be helpful and there are definite variables in pitching beyond just fastball velocity, but fastball velocity is still a pretty solid predictor, at least better than numbers. To me, this makes trying to make a numbers based approach from league to league unnecessary. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-2676781726289028442012-12-25T22:14:15.819-06:002012-12-25T22:14:15.819-06:00Brian Cartwright found some problems with some NPB...Brian Cartwright found some problems with some NPB translations previously:<br /><br />http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-oliver-loves-yu/<br /><br />Does the data contain RP and SP splits. I know it wasn't available for a while for the NPB data.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335172475085759395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-55007117298439483842012-12-25T20:41:46.654-06:002012-12-25T20:41:46.654-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-2198230945159629422012-12-25T20:40:52.921-06:002012-12-25T20:40:52.921-06:00Jeff, i could have done that (feel free to do it y...Jeff, i could have done that (feel free to do it yourself), but it seems that the roles stayed the same for the most part between countries<br /> I dont think that there would be a big difference in data. Perhaps it would even reinforce the thesis more as many of the worst MLB pitchers (out of the ones from japan) were decent (and soft tossing) NPB starters that came over and pitched poorly in a relief role in the Majors. <br /><br />Sent off the phone so sorry for any gramatical errors. I really appreciate you reading and commenting. Happy Holidays. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15132466409851614332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4975768989952885120.post-63734746076008743612012-12-25T20:31:36.172-06:002012-12-25T20:31:36.172-06:00Did you happen to split the results and MLE's ...Did you happen to split the results and MLE's based on relief and starting pitchers? A pitcher in relief role would throw harder than they did as SP and therefore have better results in the majors as a RP than they did in the minors as a SP. Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13335172475085759395noreply@blogger.com